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To: DaYooper who wrote (10462)	2/19/2001 8:22:10 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

Hi Mike, I missed about the last 200 posts (some of us still work ya know <g>) and was surprised to see this recently posted by you. Are you just looking for a technical bounce at this level or is mishbear smelling for a bottom with a fundamental upturn? Rory Rory, at first I was thinking fundamental change but now I think bounce. (Thank Raymond for my change in attitude! gggg) But it could be a very very nice exuberant bounce. It may not be at that number, it could be in the 1800-1900 range as well. Zeev is looking for this to happen on roughly Mar 9th, but what you want to watch for is the Tick count and panic IMHO. ========================================================= Here is a post on what will trigger the bounce that I did elsewhere. The "guess" and that is all it is, is we rally hard about a week or so in front of the FOMC and for a bit after it. Please bear in mind that if eveyrone believes this, it will not happen. The market likes to make idiots out of as many people as possible. Right now, 65% of market newsletters, analysts etc are bullish. This bullish sentiment is near all time high levels. This is yet another reason that it is very unlikely that we have already set a decent bottom already. How high we bounce is based on Tick Trin counts. The Tick is a relative measure of how many stocks are sold on an uptick vs downtick. Trin is based on volumes of advancing/declining issues. As a refresher course -1000 = fear -1200 = near panic -1400 = total panic +1000 = panic buy Here is the link: quote.yahoo.com^vix+^vxn+%5Etic.n+%5Esti.n+%5Esti.o&d=t Now back to the question at hand. What we are looking for is fear, lots of it, panic would be better. Several days in a row of -1000 or better, preferably accompanied by final panic at -1400 or so with a TRIN of 6 or higher (BTW:Naz trin is called STTI on the above link). PS. We got a TRIN of over 10 on Friday and I have never seen such an occurance before. TRINs below .65 are bullish, from .66 to 1.0 are more or less neutral, and TRINs above 1.0 are bearish. The 10 we hit was simply off the charts. One might have expected to see this at a bottom, BUT it was simply not accompanied by the right fear levels. Now, why do we want this? A good firm bottom will come from panic not from wishy-washy complacancy. Thus, after a rebound off 2250, 1800, 1900 or whatever we rebound from, the more fear and panic that went into the bottom, the stronger and longer the rebound will be. (The market will try and make the bottom sellers look as stupid as possible). After we bottom, a +1000 panic buy would set a bottom that would be very difficult to break. Note: The above will make a nice V bottom. We may not bottom in this manner. If we do, however, the bottom should be quite easy to spot, even if it is just another "local bottom". Hope this makes some sense. M