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Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Walkingshadow who wrote (19006)	2/20/2001 9:32:26 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19374

WS- Perhaps I wasn't clear enough (is an often occurance nowadays, given the 2 hour sleep pattern! gg).. If we break below 2300 (which I think we do this week)...we pretty much wreck any base-building, bottom-building that has taken place until now (Dec/Jan.).....we clearly take out the 90 COMPX LOG.....nasty, nasty....I expect then a quick move to 2000 level.... Now (and Raymond D. and I hashed this out on another thread, and he brought up a very good pt.)- Greenspan, I do not believe, wants to see the Naz fall below 2000...Psychologically, a 60% ultra-bear within a year is devastating, and he knows that will have some serious consequences for years to come....however, before my exchange with Raymond, I thought he would work thru another surprise cut- but Raymond brought up the PPT.....in my mind, that is a more likely scenario....if we break 2000, and start heading down....I think we're going to have utter chaos in the Naz and I don't think Greenspan wants that.. BTW- Greenspan has made a couple remarkable speeches/testimonies in the last couple months, largely acknowleging tech for increasing productivity, and allowing rapid growth with low inflation...basically crediting tech with the miracle of the 90's....also, he's recognized recently that consumer confidence is in some part tied to the markets....given the rapid falloff in consumer confidence in recent months, and the plunge in the Naz (correlation) , I can not see how he couldn't recognize the link, and indeed, Bob McTeer (Dallas Fed)....a "techie dove", I grant you....but he admitted that the Fed does watch the Naz. He did not say "financial markets"....he said "the Nasdaq".....McTeer might shade some things, but I don't think he would get misquoted on that. Also, Jan. 3rd, I think, was partially a response to the incredibly lame Naz....without intervention then, we would have been below 2000 in a day or two, IMO... We'll see...nothing guaranteed...but 1900-2000 is my target..