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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rudedog who wrote (41425)	2/21/2001 5:42:48 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 64865

Thanks rudedog, I was maintaining my stand of SUNW being overvalued for over a year (after it went over $35 to $40 like a rocket and it hit P/E of 125 or more), unfortunate the stock was run by Fidelity and Janus and many others just jumped on the bandwagon. The combination with Netscape and AOL also helped pushing the stock. Yes it was criminal and actually the SEC did not bother to bring any one to justice. Further the best contrary indicator is James Cramer he loved SUNW at 50 and 60 and now he will not touch it. SUNW insider sold en-mass wen the stock was above $60 at the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars and I notified this tread then only to be brushed off by Lynn at the time (I think). Scott McNeily did not even had the integrity to warn investors that the stock is overvalued wen SUNW hit $50 as the Chairman of Sonny did wen SNE was over $150. That is why SUNW is now 29% from it's peak and SNE only 50%. As I write this SUNW is trading below $19. The thieves and swindlers on WS predicted $75 for SUNW only short 6 months ago, well they still have their jobs and fat paychecks and yes they sit in plush offices not in jail. The non-sense of server glut from bust dot.com is just non-sense as only it will be partly used, no real IT manager will buy outdated servers, the life cycle is 3 to 5 years anyway. As to tech stocks in general, we are now close to another extreme cycle as they were a year ago but in oposite direction............ nobody wants to hold on tech stocks now ................ therefore it may be now the time to nibble at tech stocks. I just bought XLK below $30, and I am long SUNW with covered July calls. What the narrow minded "analyst" forget is that we are in a global market and Europe is doing just fine, as is Asia excluding Japan. We are close to a capitulation move but there are chances it will be prevented by a move of the FED. IMHO the market is on the brink of collapse and any one knows it. BWDIK Haim

To: rudedog who wrote (41425)	2/21/2001 5:49:34 PM
From: QwikSand	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 64865

It's kind of strange how the "line" moves - QS used to be in the fold of the faithful, now he's "negative", even though as far as I can tell his views have not changed at all. That's true about the company. Not true about the stock. Twister's abrasive style can put people off (which I think he gets a kick out of BTW), but in the final analysis he was right. I don't agree with his predictions of a second act for Wintel, but I also don't agree that his posts have been completely without substance. He was sitting here for years asking, sometimes in significant detail, "Why should SUNW have this valuation?" and no substantive answer was ever given because there was no such answer. We've seen the proof. We are living through the proof right this second. I've been watching Louis Rukeyser now for five years. At first I thought it was a good show. Then I realized that it was more like a porno loop, or a repeating episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer: all the people around the table were robots playing back the same empty drivel week after week, not knowing their asses from a hole in the ground, probably crooks. One of their "dwarves" started voting negative and they fired her. I've seen exactly ONE Rukeyser show in all that time where the guest was worthwhile: a few weeks ago when it was John Bogle. He basically said, "It's too bad these stock pickers you have on every week can't pick stocks worth sh*t." Rukeyser, of course, asked Bogle which stocks he liked anyway. Bogle said he liked index funds. I certainly don't know anything but I don't think we'll see SUNW at $15 even after they warn tomorrow. But I'm mostly tired of playing this game. I've paid handsomely for my Certificate of Clownhood. I never imagined that SUNW's chart would look like INSP's chart, but it's pretty damn close at this point. One of them is a leader with solid earnings, solid growth and solid prospects. The other is a flakey dotcom headed by a madman (I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader to decide which is which<g>). Their recent charts are alarmingly similar. Regardless of the woulds and the shoulds and the why's, Sun HAS lost 70% of its value in a few months and we ARE in the worst bear market in years which is likely to engulf even the parts that have escaped so far. The trees don't grow to heaven. And at this point, I can't blame Sun's lack of execution for the majority of this decline. They're late on some products while they grow and increase market share...that's not worth a 70% discount according to "logic". It went up on craziness, it went down on craziness, and all we can do is hope it goes up on craziness again. I don't understand the stock market, and it's going to stay that way. --QS