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To: AllansAlias who wrote (71531)	2/24/2001 11:51:34 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 436258

International Reference Cycle Dates Presented below are reference cycle chronologies for 18 economies that ECRI determined using the same methodology used to establish the official business cycle dates for the United States. In addition, growth rate cycle chronologies, which delineate periods of cyclical upswings and downswings in growth, are also presented for all countries. businesscycle.com

To: AllansAlias who wrote (71531)	2/25/2001 12:32:07 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

There Is No Doubt That There Is Limited Downside For Any Of The Averages None of them can go below 0. I'm sure you've noticed that there were some pretty foreboding weekly sticks. Most interesting was the fact that SPX, INDU, and NYSE were all even uglier than NDX or COMP. Reviewing these charts I would estimate that before the end of this year we will see COMPX at 1,000, $SPX at 1,000, and INDU at 8200. Given the extent that INDU is so easily manipulated there is possibility that they may be able to arrest its fall at 9400 or 8800. Shorter term it looks like we could have a small bounce that I doubt takes up above 2350 before resuming the decent to 2000 in the first week of March, a goal which should be realized by the end of April. August should find us at about 1400 with the September - December "rally" taking us to 1000. I would be interested in your thoughts on these targets, since I am usually wrong, and I'm sure many would like to see your nifty weekly charts and commentary on SPX, NDX, and NYSE. INDU would also being nice to see but knowing that you are particularly loath of this "rummy" index I hesitate to ask for that as well. You will be happy to hear that I have acquired a small portfolio of techno-trash calls in anticipation of the possibility of a bounce (JNPR, SUNW, VTSS and BRCM). (Actually it was much in anticipation of the bounce since I was expecting the bounce, which at that time I thought was going to be to the bottom of the 2/15/01 stick, to have occurred last week.) Notwithstanding the calls I also am maintaining an array of DJX puts as well as an open JNPR short - which I stubbornly refused to close when they ran it up in the last hour Friday. The wisdom of this last decision, having be made in anger and defiance, remains to be seen.