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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1336)	2/25/2001 1:32:31 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12411

Wow Chip, All I can add is that the Japanese and Germans had their priorities wrong. Soap - candles - beer - alcohol - food Why any fool knows that it should be: beer - alcohol - food - Soap - candles :)

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1336)	2/25/2001 4:42:02 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12411

I nominate this as post of the week, Chip. Printing it now . . . I know a little about the Kondratieff theory. Tom Dorsey introduced me to Theodore Modis and the S-curve. I've read half of his book, Predictions but keep falling asleep when I read it. <g> He has a book about trading the markets with the S-curve but I haven't purchased it. Following cycles is hard enough.

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1336)	2/25/2001 5:32:00 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12411

Chip, I couldn't agree with you more, but could never have said it so eloquently. Thanks for such an articulate and very well conceived response. I too agree that it will have to be wars and geological disasters which would upset our financial apple carts. Those, particularly geological disasters, are hard to make provisions for in ones portfolio planning. Zeev recently pointed out an interesting theory he subscribes to, he calls the PPT. It stands for the Plunge Protection Team and he connects it with the Federal Reserve of New York which controls the FED open market activity. We live in interesting times.

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1336)	2/25/2001 5:33:06 PM
From: IndexTrader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12411

Hi chip, That was a very thoughtful post re: Kondratieff Theory. Thank you. Your dad was fortunate to have been acquainted with Schumpeter. When I posted the article I, in no way, meant to endorse the theories of gloom & doom so many K-wave theorists promote. In fact, if the LongWave does exist, I believe it already bottomed & we are experiencing the fallout from the transition at this time. The liquidationists think we have a long way to go... that we are sliding down the backside into Depression ala soup kitchens, stock market crashes, real estate deflation and massive unemployment. They are wrong & will be confounded as the new upwave brings world wide economic expansion and prosperity. Further, I doubt that massive debt liquidation is necessary for the next upwave. Much of it will be monetized, to the dismay of the bears. The rest will be compensated for through demand. The next expansion will exceed everyones expectation, although it will initially proceed slowly & cause a lot of volatility in the equity market. It will proceed with a bias toward inflation. Perhaps gold may even do well. That brings me back to wheat. IF there is a 60 year commodity cycle, it seems to have bottomed in 1999. If so, this should bode well for the grains. I once heard, anecdotally, that Greenspan considers it one of his missions in life to do away with the deflationary phase of the K-Wave. I don't know if that has any truth to it, but it is interesting. Thanks again for your thoughts. Susan

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1336)	2/25/2001 8:13:25 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12411

Chip, your father was right about no repeat of 1929, but I think that th main reason is the "safety net", it provides "demand of last resort". In the 30' the economy contracted in a death spiral (I think GDP contracted by 30% from its peak), that was simply due to complete drying of demand. With unemployment and social security payment providing a cushion on the demand side, such a contraction is not fathomable, IMHO. Catastrophe can still occur, but of that magnitude. Good luck out there. Zeev