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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (5427)	2/25/2001 1:06:24 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Mark, "Well i disagree with this pattern you mentioned, i hope that's ok with you" This concerns me that you would infer it bothered me if anyone disagreed with my opinion, particularly you, or anyone else here I have met. What it does is give me pause to reconsider all possibilities. I agree with the S&P pattern and have march 1100 puts. Mark, another 50% from here takes the pe on tech stocks within the S&P to 15. It would reduce the pe on the nas 100 to 19. The dow pe would be about 11-12. These are extraordinary numbers. I don't think they are worth betting on as imo, 10-25% is much more realistic, and we would get a big snap back from those levels, and be back to where we are. If we drop 25% and I am about 25% cash, I'll be down another 10-20%, with the cash and S&P puts providing some protection. I can easily tolerate that. I think we are due for a bounce, and we are more toward the bottom of what I see will be an emerging trading range. For your scenario to play out, a huge drop followed by a permanently low plateau, we need the fed to underreact badly, which they are doing so far, and for energy problems to cause years of stagflation, and hoplessness. And if you are following my other posts, even in that situation, we had bounces to nearly new highs every 15months on average for 17 years. And I think I can handle that. I don't think this is Japan. All the best, Gene