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To: pat mudge who wrote (404)	2/25/2001 7:33:42 PM
From: j t jackson	Respond to of 3294

Pat, many many thanks for your great reporting and for sticking to the subject. Regards...jtj

To: pat mudge who wrote (404)	2/26/2001 10:02:57 PM
From: tripperd2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3294

Pat, I have a question for you regarding RHK. Some of the most optimistic forecasts for growth in the fiberoptic space have come from their research. As I believe you have previously stated, their figures have been revised upwards in the last several years on several occasions. My question is can we trust that their numbers come without any untoward bias. Of course macro-economic events can certainly change estimates but that is not what I am trying to get at. From their webpage: RHK is the leading industry market research and consulting firm specializing in the analysis of advanced technologies for the public telecommunications network. The company provides subscription services and custom consulting to technology vendors, service providers, component suppliers and the investment community. RHK's unparalleled expertise stems from the knowledge base and contacts of its industry experts and its disciplined market research methodology. Building on its North American experience and international industry experts, RHK provides telecommunications market analysis addressing North America, Europe, and other international markets. RHK clients are provided with extensive market analysis, forecasting, technology assessment, and profiles of vendors and service providers in the public network space. Is there any reason for them to be unduly optimistic? What has been your experience with them? Do they have any reason to behave in the shameless manner of the sell side analysts that have flogged the investing public? I think not, but would like to hear your response. Here is the link if anyone is interested. rhk.com The reason my curiosity was piqued was a comment Raymond Duray "So, when I look at the projections from RHK, Dell'Oro, Gartner et al, what I see is that they have all plugged in growth curves that are unrealistic. The normal growth of any industry is an "S" curve and I believe that they have the tail of the "S" out too far into the future more often than not. " Thanks, Trip