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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49409)	2/27/2001 6:06:24 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77399

Jacob, and threaders >First, the lower interest rates make businesses and consumers, at the margin, more likely to build and spend and consume. . . The earliest that consumer spending could pick up is July. That's when "visibility" may improve.< I agree with what you are saying but remind myself, that the Market looks 3-6 months ahead of where we are now. With one percent Fed drop already in the cards and a second .50% appearing to be on the way I wonder whether the sectors will roll over very quickly to the techie's again even before the earning start increasing in anticipation of greater earnings. When, and how quickly this rotation will occur I have not been able to predict. However, we do know that 75-80% of a stock price is the market and the sector that a particular stock is in. Trying to anticipate the psychology of the market, IMO, can not be done. How quickly gloom and doom changes to a boom and bubble. My approach is not to chase the stocks which are statistically in the high 70% on the Bell shaped curve. Right now, Oil, Oil services, gas utilities, savings and loan, and banks are in the overbought area (over 70%). As of last week the internet, telephone, precious metals, semi's, waste management and computers were 38% or lower. Therefore, they were at or near the oversold range. I track 233 stocks placing them in the four phases of the economic model utilizing the Dorsey Wright Server resources and indicators. Phase one is the consumer cyclical and energy group including their sectors and stocks; phase two, the basic materials and technology; three, the financial and industrial groups and 4th consumer non-cyclicals and utility group. Then, I broken down the gorilla stocks into the four groups and their respective sectors. Almost all the buying now is, as you say, in the (1) cyclical/energy and (2) non-cyclical/utility groups (4th-defensive stocks, tobacco/drugs, etc.). You can just eyeball the buys. One of the CNBC chart analyst just stated that the financial/insurance stocks do good just after an economic slowdown FED increase and after FED cuts as well. I have to research this some more. My banker yesterday stated that customers are just beginning to come into the bank to refinance there loans. Many to buy new cars-which I could never understand since card depreciate so quickly. In the future I plan to make use of the above information in investing and try (gg) to be ahead of the movement. Just hope I am not to far ahead at this time. <gg> By the way, it appears phase two (basic materials and technology) of the economic model starts to end when the FED begins to increase rates. Then, it appears it is the time to move to the 3rd, financial and industrial and 4th consumer non-cyclicals and utility groups. Then, when the FED starts to ease rates it appears to be the time to get into phase one, cyclical, energy and phase two, basic materials and technology groups as rotation starts to occurs. Your reactions and others are appreciated. Just my opinions. Paul