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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric who wrote (49423)	2/27/2001 12:35:51 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77399

Hi Eric - yours is typical of the long view. FWIW, my outsider's view is that the 20% that you still have in CSCO is suffering at the hands of the 80% you took off the table. Or at least, it's trying hard to pretend that you left only 5% in play <ggg> If you consider it as having a cost base of 0 (having taken profits earlier) then you can see it as a no-lose investment. One might argue that this is an extravagant viewpoint. If however you see it as capital, then leaving it in play must assume a view that says "relative to alternative deployment, this is superior". I'm bullish on the company. Bearish on the stock. Not company specific. The whole tech wreck hasn't finished playing out yet IMHO. John.

To: Eric who wrote (49423)	2/27/2001 1:02:06 PM
From: Zoltan!	Respond to of 77399

It's not Cisco. It's the economy. Chambers was right, Clinton-Gore left US with a recession and Greenspan hasn't been aggressive enough in combating it: February 27, 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Consumer Confidence Declined To a Four-Year Low in February A WSJ.COM News Roundup Consumer confidence hit its lowest level in more than four years in February, dragged down by eroding expectations for future business and employment conditions. See analysis from Briefing.com on the Conference Board's February consumer-confidence report. The consumer-confidence index sank to 106.8 in February, compared with 115.7 previous month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. It marked the fifth consecutive drop in the monthly index, falling to its lowest point since June 1996. Economists surveyed by Thomson Global Markets had expected the index to fall to 110.5.... interactive.wsj.com ...The decline was driven by deteriorating expectations for the economy over the next six months. The board's expectations index slid to 68.7 in February from 79.3 and is now at its lowest level since October 1993. "The really bad news is that the expectations index plunged by much more than the headline," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. He said the expectations gauge is a "much better" forecaster of gross domestic product than the overall confidence index. At February's level, the expectations index "is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth of around negative 1% -- that is, recession," Mr. Shepherdson said. The new expectations numbers imply that "consumer spending will slow dramatically over the next few months," he said. "It may even fall." The portion of respondents expecting better business conditions in six months fell to 11.1% from 13.1%. Those expecting conditions to worsen rose to 17.8% from 15.2%. Only 10.2% of Americans expect there to be more jobs six months from now, down from 18.7% back in September. The present-situation index also fell, but remained in territory that suggests consumers are comfortable with current conditions. The present-situation index fell to 164.1 from 170.4, the lowest level since January 1998. "The only way out of this mess is for the stock market to rebound substantially and rapidly -- particularly the Nasdaq -- but we have few hopes this is a realistic proposition," Mr. Shepherdson said... Threat of Economic Downturn Causes Home Sales to Slide 10.9% A WSJ.COM News Roundup WASHINGTON -- New-homes sales plummeted a surprising 10.9% in January, the biggest drop in seven years, as worries about the economy overwhelmed the attraction of cheaper mortgage rates.... interactive.wsj.com