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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (133711)	2/27/2001 11:47:34 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1571011

Ted, re: double ordering Yup!! Happens all the time in a shortage situation. The problem is that fab capacity has a lead-time of 2-3 yrs to bring on line from the word go. But when it comes on it comes on in huge incremental steps. The foundries are going to be in a world of hurt with excess capacity. And there are 3-4 12" fabs coming on line. IMHO the sh*t hasn't hit the fan yet. AMD is very vulnerable on flash. I suspect flash will be in serious oversupply in Q2. Considering flash is 40% of AMD's profits - things could get a whole lot uglier. regards, Kash

To: tejek who wrote (133711)	2/27/2001 11:59:26 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571011

ted, <If Altera is truly representative of everyone, we are screwed> As far as AMD goes, it doesn't matter much. There isn't 8 months of inventory in the CPU market. For AMD, the glut of everything else should alleviate infrastructure problems and make motherboards cheaper. As far as Comm chip companies, programmable logic and memory companies, they were ripe for a fall. I've made more money shorting the likes of CSCO, TMTA, AMCC, NTAP and even INTC than being long AMD. The carnage in high tech today was incredible. Check out the components of the Naz 100 index ^NDX: quote.yahoo.com@^ndx 4 stocks up, 1 even, 95 down. Sanders looks like a genius for signing long term contracts for Flash. As kapkan4u said on the mod thread: "When everybody was screaming that flash capacity will not catch up with demand until 2003, Jerry was signing contracts as fast as his lawyers could draft them." Petz