To: Boplicity who wrote (10995 ) 2/28/2001 9:04:28 PM From: Boplicity Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 13572 It now appears the FED will not drop rates between meetings. I'm very happy the Greenspan is waiting and letting the economy works it's way though it's current problems. It's times like these that harden managers. There are a lot of green horns managers that have never seen the likes of this type of slow down before, so some positives will come of the current mess as the manager pay their dues. The big problem is the inventory correction is not only a correction on inventory but has turned in to a correction in the number of companies that manufacture, provide access, consult, write and install software, this part of the correction will become more obvious going forward then is now. Consolidation and reduction of players needs happen. What does the above mean to the market going forward? We are not going to see a v type bottom, it's going to be more of a slow bottoming process, as companies merge, or disappear all together. I see this bottoming process taking the better part of this year. How does the above factor into how I will play the market? Unless you are trading, I see no reason at all to rush in buy for a number of reason. 1) Dead money, a) Many of the established players will never return to the type of stocks they once where. b) Why have you money tied up when time is on your hands and bottoms will be obvious? 2) Since I feel it's going to take time to sort out what companies will survive and what sector will be leaders. a) I will wait to see how it plays out before I commit my hard earned cash. b) Possible side bets will be merger candidates. c) While I wait, I will be looking for trades. What could change how I feel about the market now? A move past 1900 that concludes with a climax sell off. If we were to have a big sell off, say 15 to 20% down in one day, (don't laugh 20% is only 400 or so points now, it could happen) I would be a buyer then, not waiting to see how the market sorts itself out. Why do I say that? You would have plenty of time to weed and build after a selling climax as they rise from the asses of the largest and never seen NAZ bear in history. I wish the above sell off would happen, I just don't see it happening that way. Greg