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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (128582)	3/1/2001 8:21:30 AM
From: Joseph Pareti	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

essentially the street is flipping from the old Ponzi scheme (the internuts) to the new one (sing&dance.bear.short). In neither case value was added. The good news for me is that even plain dollar cost averaging (on Intel) can give me "Warren Buffet kind of returns" while todays lemmings (including the folks on the clown-free thread) will be kicked in their a***s when the Ponzi scheme flips again.

To: Road Walker who wrote (128582)	3/1/2001 8:23:58 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 186894

RE: "I think he believes that this slowdown is an "inventory correction" primarily in technology, because of over-capacity built in the heady days of 1999 and the first 1/2 of 2000, when the growth assumptions went through the roof" -------------------- John and Thread, You can't help but wonder if Intel should get conservative on the capex. Have you followed s/c business long enough to know what the inventory levels were like when entering the prior recession? Does 8 months of inventory at Altera (see below) seem a bit longer than what you would expect, even for a recession. Your thoughts? Check this out: Message 15421192 To:tejek who wrote (133688) From: kash johal Tuesday, Feb 27, 2001 8:23 PM Ted, We were chatting about wafer foundries and capacity in general. Here's some scary info from Altera's conf call: 8 months of Inventory!!!!. And Altera is either TSMC's largest or second foundry customers. Also Chartered semiconductor had awfull foundry utilizations in its pre-announcement today. We have 12-18 months of WAY overcapacity to absorb!!! Message 15421899 Kash, I know everyone has inventory although 8 mos. is unbelievable. This can't be due just to demand dropping off. Everyone must have been double ordering.....so every single chip maker and optical supplier must have been working overtime for months to produce components only to get saddled with them. If Altera is truly representative of everyone, we are screwed. And why was Altera saying a month ago that things were improving....with 8 mos of inventory, they should have kept their mouths shut. ted Message 15422135 To:tejek who wrote (133711) From: kash johal Tuesday, Feb 27, 2001 11:47 PM View Replies (2) \| Respond to of 133811 Ted, re: double ordering Yup!! Happens all the time in a shortage situation. The problem is that fab capacity has a lead-time of 2-3 yrs to bring on line from the word go. But when it comes on it comes on in huge incremental steps. The foundries are going to be in a world of hurt with excess capacity. And there are 3-4 12" fabs coming on line. IMHO the sh*t hasn't hit the fan yet. AMD is very vulnerable on flash. I suspect flash will be in serious oversupply in Q2. Considering flash is 40% of AMD's profits - things could get a whole lot uglier. regards, Kash