Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Novellus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3198)	3/1/2001 6:38:47 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3813

NVLS mid-Q Call: Forecasting Bookings of 240M for Q1 down 50-55% from Q4....includes 2 cancellations valued at 43M Shipments expected to be 410M vs 430 forecasted EPS for Q1= .62 Bookings for the year expected to come in around 1.3Billion, down 19% from 2000 forecast a flat Q2 in bookings trending up after that

To: Ian@SI who wrote (3198)	3/1/2001 10:41:09 PM
From: trilobyte	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3813

NVLS CC: the full story. State of business and guidance: Bookings for Q1 2001: expect 240 Mil, down 50-55% from Q4, vs 35% down from Q4. Booking number includes in it a cancellation of 43 Mil. Shipments 410 for Q1, vs 430 mil forecasted at at end of Q4. Down about 15% from the combined NVLS/GSNX shipments in Q4. SAB revenue 458 Mil vs 478 forecasted. Finally, earnings at 62cts/share. For year, bookings about 1.3 billion, down 15% from 2000. Sequentially up Q2 and beyond from salesforce. Management though feels still uncertainty and expect Q2 bookings to be flat with Q1. basis for belief that bookings flat in Q2? better than thought before... any resurgence? Flat Q2 includes cancellations. What our field is seeing is buoyed by strength in copper, surface integrity group bookings are holding solid, but management is cautious. Orders cancelled? was a 200mm and in the other case 300mm. how the outlook for copper has changed in the last months and market share of NVLS? Difficult to answer with numbers but the demand for copper has accelerated from a standpoint of development. A few players accelerating production of copper. In addition, we have increased requests for evaluation from few companies we don't have. From market share standpoint, electrofill we get the lion share. Growing share in barrier seed and many innovations that we think will lead to gains in pvd. In pvced, we think we have the lowest cost options and will demonstrate that with fully integrated devices in the future. geographic areas: where weakness? appears Taiwan closed up completely. Seen throughout the world including US, but pockets of strength in the US. Actually more skepticism from analysts than the equipment suppliers. Now start to see Japan starting to slow. Point is when end consumer demand will turn as this is what is driving the slowdown in this case. Sense of utilization rates? Don't know, i'd be guessing... think it's below 80% love to brag about success of vector, but won't do it. 1.3 billion in orders in 2001, starting with 240. Hockey stick prediction? why? First, from sales force, they don't think it's flat in Q2. Forecast shows uptick in Q3 and Q4 due to acceleration in capacity in 300mm and copper. But visibility today is much less than ever before. Can't be sure, but think interest rate cuts and tax cuts will cause rebound in US economy. 300mm tools, changing in pricing? Yes, one company seeks to give equipment away... but overall we're well positioned. 300mm vs 200mm pricing? either the same or upward 30%. low-k products: growth? don't discuss growth. But have some major integration wins in low-k. believe success of this will proliferate in telecom and micro processor applications. surface integrety business: 300mm strip anisotropic or isotropic? porting GSNX on one platform? We have both strip capability. Believe to combine two to address. We are behind in this business but increase R&D in this area. disclosed proforma year end backlog for combined entity? no. Discuss combined level of backlog at end of Q1? No. orders for 300mm for Europe, Taiwan outside foundries? don't disclose. focus on 2002 and beyond? China and singapour business? farther you want to go out, the more accurate I can be, if you wan't to go out 10 years, sure, it will be bigger than now... (cynical, cynical!). But yes, government incentives in these countries are part of the game here. But not quite sure ramp in these too countries as rapid as people believe. But we're well positioned in those regions. 300mm loss is a pushout rather than competitive loss. where copper yields stand? our conversations with customers ramping in copper: yields at low end are 5% below aluminum but at high end 15% above aluminum. deferred rev backlog will be around 420 million at end of Q1.