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To: Michael Watkins who wrote (74240)	3/1/2001 9:06:14 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

that's possible...they did just that in 1930/31. just think about it...in 1932, industrial output had collapsed to the levels of 1886...so the deterioration happened extremely fast. it's unlikely that a similarly extreme outcome awaits us today, but it goes to show how difficult it is for post bubble economies to find their footing. and i don't think they're all above board...which makes it even more worrisome...because if they could hide it somehow, they would.

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (74240)	3/1/2001 11:01:22 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Michael, I believe that they knew well that the ponzi scheme was in danger well before the New Year, but I now think that the tightening spiral of deteriorating fundamentals has caught them by surprise. Some here called this beautifully last summer and fall. The trick now is that I do not think there is any turning back. I think the spiral will accelerate. In the meantime, I expect some ferocious rallies fueled by the combination of deeply oversold, lagging indicators/data, and news that is just not bad. I can also see an extended rally into the summer that is supported by evidence that things may be turning. This will prove to be illusory. From an Elliott perspective, this will be the next correction of high degree. Cheers. Allan.