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Biotech / Medical : Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (2322)	3/2/2001 1:13:19 AM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4974

<<A major clinical success will ALWAYS lead to a responsive stock. If we have twenty in the next three years, we'll have twenty investment success stories.>> Yes. Yes,... and Yes. Last example is CTIC, and maybe SCIO will be. VPHM have good chance? But, magnitude of the responsiveness will depend on overall comps business franchise, as hope that event may repeat one day. I am aware of discussion theme. Today times (sector decline) is not comparable with Oct. '98. Sector will emerge as market leader, in near future. Sector is mature, but it may need next quantum step. It needs catalyst. At this time I do not foresee mayor clinical success stories (few very good results), so it better be something else. Miljenko PS: After 16 months out I re-enter borrowing in my margin account. It does remind me on ’98.

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (2322)	3/2/2001 11:56:08 AM
From: biowa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4974

Rick, Just wanted to echo Miljenko's comments, differentiating between "a MAJOR clinical success," and just a solid company executing on their clinical development plan successfully. As Miljenko says, I'm not sure where the MAJOR success is waiting in the wings. Also, to be technically correct, Viracept was not really a MAJOR clinical success, it was more of a MAJOR marketing success. It was a me-too drug, that in terms of viral load reduction wasn't significantly better than other already marketed protease inhibitors and close-in clinical candidates. What made Viracept was at least a moderately better side effect profile (especially nuisance side effects), and the marketing foresight to realize that they could key on that. biowa