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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (1733)	3/2/2001 8:45:56 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Premature to call the bear dead There is a lot of talk on various threads about bouncing off of long term logarithmic trend lines that date back many years. Why do trendlines work ever? Because people watch them, and if a mass consensus arrives at a similar decision - that the trend line will hold - then they hold due to the actions of people in this time frame, here and now. Do trendlines fail? All the time, and for the same reason. So before calling a late afternoon rally of insignificant proportions in even as measured against only the latest swing down over the past month, it would be wise to see confirmation in larger time frames. A higher high and low on the daily bar. A move up back into the range (outlined in the chart below). ottographs.com Until the lower trading range is cleared, the bear market is far from dead. This range if it gets back into play now, will simply define the lowest trading range on the daily charts. My guess is that it will go on for some time, possibly test the top end and bottom end one or more times before price carries on to where it will. The market could easily grind sideways in that range for weeks, months or years. It could pop up there for a day, a week, and then plummet. It could run up to the lower boundary, keel over and die. That range is much more important to the market at this point than the 1990 logarithmic trendline because that range defines the actions and decisions in the here and now. Until that range is killed off (the upside boundary is broken and price stays above), the "bear" - I prefer to call it a long term down trend - is not dead. Here's the view at the top, same process. ottographs.com

To: StockOperator who wrote (1733)	3/2/2001 8:57:22 AM
From: HammerHead	Respond to of 52237

capitulation on software sector, ORCL and SEBM down 25% pre-market. gonna to be a good trading day...

To: StockOperator who wrote (1733)	3/3/2001 11:35:24 AM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

The way things are shaping up I would say that next week is the most critical week of the month. I think if prices are going to hold this critical support they will do so this week. If not then I believe prices could slide hard into the FOMC meeting. As far as the charts are concerned I wish they were more telling. This past week has left incredible divergences across the tech landscape with some stocks that look poised to head higher. Let me repeat that they LOOK poised to go higher. The overall trends are still down, however, if stocks are going to try to stop the bleeding, this coming week would be a good one for prices to try and stabilize. The reason I have my doubts about their ability to do so is the way prices closed at the end of the month. Look at stocks like CSCO for example (which btw did not close well for the week). The close last month usually dictates a continued (substantial) push lower the following month. My bellweather AMZN has yet to really crumble. Even if stocks manage to hold here I still do not see a whole host of major players moving until this quarter is over with. That would include many of the chip stocks that WS says should be one of the first groups to lead us out of this. I think it's wise to watch carefully how things play out early and let the market dictate which way it wants to go. Have a good weekend.