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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (39926)	3/4/2001 11:02:23 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Peregrine......and Siebel. Moore wrote about Perefrine as the market leader in a category that has, I believe, a reasonable chance of tornadoing.........I followed Peregrine when I first followed the front office industry, thinking at the time that Peregrine was part of that category. As I later learned that it wasn't, I still felt it was a terrifically managed company growing rapidly. Ok, so we hosted a dinner party last night for some parents whose children are in the same private school, prissy kindergarten class as our little princess. Two of the Dads are in High Tech related areas. Both were talking the GG, and one had worked with Geoffrey Moore. We all knew the lingo, although I'm sure they left wondering why a doc would have any idea what they were talking about. Now, one of them, a former computer programmer, now a software analyst/investor, stated that his biggest position is in Peregrine. What caught my interest here, is that this guy was recommending Siebel Systems to me in the Fall of '99. (Of course, I was able to reciprocate by making an informed position on Qualcomm). Last night, this same guy speculated that Siebel's tornado will be slowing down soon. He thinks it might be good for 12 more months, but that it is pushing the saturation point of its market. It will remain dominant, but saturation will result in markedly slowing sales/earnings. I mentioned that it had international sales to seek, but he felt it had already been out in that space for awhile. He agrees it will remain a gorilla, but doesn't prefer holding gorillas on Main Street, because of reduced growth. He also opined that I should not confuse Siebel with Microsoft. Microsoft, he said, is an extremely unique and powerful gorilla, the likes of which we may not see in a long time. Unfortunately, the night was ending just as we got rolling. I wasn't able to get a primer on Peregrine, or ask about ITWO. Comments from the gallery? Anybody follow Peregrine? BTW, this guy follows the Gorilla game Mailing List with Moore. Apollo

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (39926)	3/4/2001 1:49:51 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, a lot of Peregrine's sales growth is due to acquisitions. I don't have the exact figures. But they took a lot of depreciation on the acquired assets so the the effect of the acquisitions can't be small. Can you think of a single gorilla where the growth of sales was not primarily "organic", i.e. internal, not dependent on acquisitions? (JDSU is a king, or course, not a gorilla.)

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (39926)	3/4/2001 10:05:48 PM
From: DownSouth	Respond to of 54805

Revenues for the past three fiscal years are $61.9 million, $138.1 million and $253.3 million, respectively. Careful, Mike. I believe these revenue increases are largely accounted for by the added revenues of acquisitions. Correct me if I am wrong. Also, if you look at the acquisition of SPAN, much of the revenue is for products and services (hand held scanners) that are not really a part of their product strategy going forward (asset mgt software). PRGN requires lots of dd, imo.