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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (919)	3/3/2001 6:22:51 PM
From: excardog	Respond to of 23153

Big Bull some Japanese stuff for you as I know you follow the world much more than I. Pardon me if you've reviewed this already: nttls.co.jp Another quote I picked up: "The mere fact that 1999 is a Directional Change target raises some hope that the final low for the Nikkei is possible during this New Year. However, a failure to break the 12,000 level during 1999 will merely postpone the likelihood of an extended decline into 2001. Our Quarterly timing models show target as 2nd Quarter of 1999, 1st and 4th Quarters 2000 followed by the 3rd Quarter of 2001 as the major turning points ahead. We see Directional Change targets during the 1st and 2nd Quarters of 1999 suggesting that some choppy price action is to be expected during the first half of 1999. The same pattern emerges with Directional Change targets for the 1st and 2nd Quarters of 2000. Our computer is picking up a Panic Cycle due the 2nd Quarter of 2001, which is precisely the target date for Phase III of big bang limiting bank deposit insurance and forcing everyone on a marked-to-the-market accounting system." Maybe the Large bull can put all this stuff into perspective for us mere humans. ps: I stole this just for you

To: BigBull who wrote (919)	3/3/2001 6:24:38 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

Iron Man Wang: public.wsj.com This dude can drilllllllllll! :o())))))))))

To: BigBull who wrote (919)	3/12/2001 10:34:40 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Tora! Tora! Tora! Kombanwa, Buru-san. O-genki desu ka? I understand that you've pulled in your horns for a while, based upon your macro-level concerns about current events in worldwide financial markets, and especially those in Japan. Nevertheless, my personal view (curiously) remains about the same as that which I outlined in my "open kimono" post (no pun intended) on February 17th... In light of the recent change in sentiment, however, I thought I would re-post my views and solicit your comments directly. Care to shoot the apple off my head? Take your best shot. Just don't aim too low, OK? I'm kind of partial to these tusks, and I'd sure hate to lose one. <gg> Best regards, Razor ------- "Happy Days? My Personal Views" Aggie: Coy? Moi? Hey, it's my kimono, and no, you can't peek inside. LOL! OK, OK, you twisted my arm. <gg> First, let me start by saying that I don't think the NASDAQ is a very good proxy for the entire US economy as a whole. Don't forget that old saw that says the stock market has predicted 11 of the last 3 recessions. <g> Second, I'll address your question directly by saying that I think the article made a number of great points. True, manufacturing is undoubtedly in a recession NOW. I see the ramifications of that every day in my consulting work. (I fly out on Monday morning to visit a manufacturing company that ran out of cash last week and issued final paychecks to employees on Friday. The company effectively drowned during the current downturn trying to service $20MM of asset-based financing. The bank's going to take a huge haircut on another airball loan. I suspect I will end up either selling the company under a liquidating Chapter 11 or simply turning over the reins to a Chapter 7 trustee for a straight liquidation. Not a pretty sight, but an increasingly common one on the front lines of the manufacturing recession that I find myself confronting on a daily basis.) Third, I have to keep reminding myself that the US economy as a whole is mostly a service economy (80%), and not just a manufacturing economy (20%). Don't forget that entire sectors can go into recession without dragging down the entire economy (e.g., look at the oil patch back in 1998-99). As long as consumer confidence doesn't tank, IMHO, the US economy as a whole will no doubt slow down significantly, but probably not plunge into a nationwide recession. Fourth, my personal belief is that the six interest rate increases last year significantly impacted overall demand, but high oil & gas prices really delivered the knock-out blow to the manufacturing sector. Fifth, I also think that the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential elections significantly affected consumer confidence during the key Christmas holiday shopping season, and that psychological impact is showing up in todays' earnings reports, but that was really a non-recurring event, and consumer confidence is not in as much of a crisis as may have seemed apparent around New Years. (BTW, I don't think that this hypothesis has been given nearly enough debate so far, but probably had an enormous impact on recent economic reports.) And last, but not least, I have to confess that I have an enormous amount of confidence in Greenspan's abilities to navigate this enormous battleship, the U.S.S. Economy. So how do I expect this outlook to affect me personally, both from a business perspective and an investment perspective? Well, from a business perspective, I hope Bullsky is right. (Sorry, folks, but if we go into a recession, I'm going to clean up on the consulting front.) But either way, I'm prepared to capitalize on either outcome from an investment perspective. I honestly believe that I can make money on my investments in 2001 by staying nimble and switch hitting when good opportunities present themselves. (I'm often wrong, but never in doubt! <g>) One more thing that I should probably clarify -- although I don't think it will surprise anyone here -- is that I've switched to a much more active trading philosophy this year. I've probably made more trades in January 2001 alone than I did all of last year, but, hey, that's what the market has been giving me, and I'll be damned if I'm going to look a gift horse in the mouth. So far, it's been a highly profitable year to date. Hope that sufficiently explains my own personal views. Now, can I close my kimono? ;-) Best regards, Razor Message 15370883

To: BigBull who wrote (919)	3/19/2001 9:45:48 AM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

"U.S. Economy: Fed Rate Cut May Be Less Than Investors Desire" 03/19 00:01 By John Cranford Washington, March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers will be watching economic statistics, not stocks, when they decide how much to cut borrowing costs tomorrow. That's why investors aren't likely to get the three-quarter-percentage-point reduction they want in the Fed's benchmark interest rate. Investors began clamoring for such a rate cut after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 7.7 percent last week, its worst weekly drop since October 1989. The Nasdaq Composite Index, down 23 percent for the year, has dropped for seven straight weeks. At the same time, economic reports show U.S. consumer confidence is no longer falling, steel production is rising, auto sales aren't as weak as had been feared, and home construction and sales just won't quit. Growth is ``decently positive, and the Fed is focused on the real economy,'' said David Jones, chief economist at Aubrey Lanston & Co in New York. ``The last thing a central banker wants is to be perceived as someone bailing out the stock market.'' After two interest-rate cuts from the Fed in January that totaled a full percentage point, some parts of the economy such as manufacturing continue to struggle. Industrial production fell for a fifth straight month in February, the longest string of declines since the 1990-91 recession. That's why economists and investors are counting on Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues, at their policy meeting tomorrow, to cut the target rate on overnight loans between banks at least a half point from the current 5.5 percent. Fed Sees Growth Pickup In recent public comments, Fed officials said they see growth picking up later this year. ``There are clearly some signs that might suggest strengthening and some signs that suggest the risks are still to the downside,'' Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said last week in Rome. ``We've got to be fairly cautious about calling anything prematurely here.'' Although consumer confidence was lower in January than at any time in more than four years, a measure of optimism from the University of Michigan was revised higher at the end of February from a preliminary estimate in mid-month. The mid-March consumer sentiment result was even higher. Home resales rose 3.8 percent in January and home construction starts last month were on a pace close to that of all of last year, the third best since 1987. U.S. raw steel production has been rising since January, when it slumped to a decade low. Weekly steel production is now higher than any time since mid- October. Vehicle Sales Vehicle sales in February were stronger than expected and put 2001 on pace to be the third-best year on record, surpassing forecasts made at the start of the year. The annual new car sales rate of 17.5 million for the month was higher than January and showed that lower consumer confidence and falling stocks weren't leading consumers to put off car buying. If policy makers do cut by three-quarters of a point tomorrow, the overnight rate will fall to 4.75 percent. It will then be back where it was on June 29, 1999 -- the day before the Fed began a series of six rate increases to prevent the economy from overheating. In less than three months, the Fed would have wiped out actions that took 11 months to put in place. The rate increases of a year ago had their desired effect - - and then some. The economy cooled to a 1.1 percent growth rate in the final three months of last year, after expanding at an average 6.1 percent pace in the 12 months from July 1999 through June 2000. Greenspan told Congress last month the abruptness of the slowdown is why Fed policy makers ``quickened the pace'' of interest-rate cuts in January. Manufacturing and Inventories Greenspan and other Fed policy makers have characterized the slowdown as mostly affecting manufacturing and mostly the result of companies trying to work off excess inventories. Even so, the drop in stocks may be the cause of broader weakness in the economy, said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York, who expects a three-quarter-point cut. Greenspan's job ``isn't to save the stock market,'' he said. ``It's to save economy from the stock market.'' Ten of the 25 bond dealers who trade directly with the Fed changed their forecasts last week to a three-quarter-point cut as stocks slid further. Trading in federal funds futures shows investors expect the overnight rate to average 4.82 percent in April -- almost three-quarters point below the current rate. ``The Fed tends to give the market what it wants and the market is clamoring'' for a three-quarter-point reduction, said Cary Leahey, senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. Stocks May Fall Stocks probably will fall if policy makers cut by just a half point, though it might be only a temporary disappointment, Jones said. Worse would be if the Fed cuts three-quarters of a point and stocks still drop further, he said. ``Then you've shot your ammunition.'' Jones said it would be smarter for Greenspan to cut by a half point tomorrow and then perhaps by a quarter point some time in April -- before the Fed's next policy meeting in mid-May. ``It seems to me, that preserves his options,'' Jones said. A three-quarter-point cut might also look like a panic step. During Greenspan's more than 13 years as Fed chairman, the central bank has never cut the overnight rate so much in one day. Central bankers came close to such a move in December 1991, as the economy was trying to dig out of the last recession. In a two-week period, the Fed chopped the overnight rate from 4.75 percent to 4 percent. That same month, the central bank cut its more symbolic discount rate on direct loans to banks by a full percentage point in one day. Even Wyss said a larger rate cut poses a risk for the Fed that investors will start counting on it to always meet market expectations. ``If the Fed does three-quarters, they'll be disappointed when the Fed doesn't do three-quarters the next time.'' quote.bloomberg.com