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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: lee kramer who wrote (5776)3/4/2001 3:18:55 PM
From: Dave Gore  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6445
 
Bulls were heartened by a subtle shift in trading patterns this past week. During the last June quarterly earnings season a pattern was established. Stocks were trading up nicely in advance of their quarterly earnings releases, then getting killed if they came a little short or met expectations. Companies that beat their expectations also sold off, just not as violently.

This past week we began to see the other side of that coin. Shares of companies announcing business slow downs and downward earnings revisions actually went up, leaving many Bulls optimistic that all bad news has already been priced into stocks. The following companies traded up this week after announcing slow downs:

Millipore (NYSE: MIL)
Amphenol (NYSE: APH)
Applied Micro Circuits (NASDAQ: AMCC)
Latice Semi Conductor (NASDAQ: LSCC)

This pattern was repeating nicely until Thursday night's announcement from Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL). Oracle announced they would only make $900 million in the current quarter, down from the $1 billion Wall Street anticipated. In a CNBC interview CEO Larry Ellison stated orders were being delayed at the CEO level due to reluctance to invest in new technology in this uncertain economic environment.
This statement caused a major shake up on Wall Street. Analysts assumed all software companies were experiencing the same environment, and there were over 30 downgrades on software companies on Friday.

The Oracle announcement may just be a bump on the road in a relief rally, or it might be the catalyst for the next leg down. We hope the pattern will continue of stocks trading up on bad news.

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