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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Gore who wrote (5778)	3/4/2001 3:24:30 PM
From: lee kramer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6445

I agree Dave. I still think this rally has legs, despite the late selloff Friday afternoon.

To: Dave Gore who wrote (5778)	3/4/2001 3:49:27 PM
From: Dave Gore	Respond to of 6445

As we all start to put together our "Faves List" for the inevitable rebound in tech stocks sometime in the future (how's that for sticking my neck out), it is none to soon to start looking at PE and PEG ratios of some sectors and favorite stocks. A semiconductor turnaround may be key. If the forthcoming by July - Sept quarter shows improvement in B/B ratio and we get any evidence that growth is turning up again, we may get the likes of a relief rally that we have seldom seen. Other catalysts like VRTS Monday or a Microsoft victory or ANYTHING similar may jump-start modest one day rallies, but it's the sustained 3, 5, 8 day rallies that we are all looking for. Anyway, PE and PEG ratios. Here a small start: Stock....PE and PEG this year....PE and PEG next year (est) GLW......22 ----- .83 -------------- 19 ----- .81 NT.......26 ---- 1.04 -------------- 20 ----- .81 EMC......44 ---- 1.47 -------------- 35 ----- 1.2 CIEN.....99 ----- 2.60 -------------- 72 ----- 1.9 VRTS.....79 ----- 1.70 -------------- 61 ----- 1.3 BRCD.....69 ----- 1.38 -------------- 50 ----- .99 JNPR.....59 ----- 1.03 -------------- 48 ----- .89 SEMI's TQNT.....18 ----- .50 -------------- 15 ----- .41 ATML.....14 ----- .52 --------------- 12 ----- .47 CRUS.....20-------------------------- 20 ECS FLEX.....28 ---- .89 ---------------- 27 ----- .87 SANM.....20 ---- .63 ---------------- 18 ----- .55 SLR......22 ---- .72 ---------------- 19 ----- .64 JBL......22 ---- .68 ---------------- 18 ----- .58 OTHERS ARW..... 7 ----- .48 ---------------- 6 ------ .43 ARTG.... 52 ---- 1.00 --------------- 36 ----- .69 TLGD.... 9 ----- .46 ---------------- 8 ------ .40 ADVP.... 53 ---- 1.78 --------------- 50 ----- 1.67 These figures are taken from sources which may or may not be reliable. Do your own research. I just use them as a guide and do not expect them to be within 10-20% accurate especially in the future looking performance. In fact if we go into a recession they could be way way off. I heard one analyst that feels that ATML will warn big time this week, which makes it PE and PEG not so appealing after all, so I wouldn't use these figure alone to make purchases on the long side. Again things could get worse before they get better. It is also important to compare current valuation among companies in specific niches only. You can not even compare the PE of ARW to that of FLEX, or the PE of KEM to the PE of ATML even though they are in the same general sector. I will be expanding this with time but this is just a start. If anyone has stocks which they feel are fundamentally undervalued, please pass them along. What would be most useful is to compare stocks in the same exact niche like I did with FLEX, SLR, etc. Can you see now why I like SANM, TQNT, GLW, etc. for the longer term? But still shorter term, you need to be very careful as the performance of virtually all tech stocks will not improve until AT LEAST the July-Sept quarter, imo. However, we still could see the more undervalued stocks perform very well prior to then IF the market decides to look ahead. That is very possible and so we wait for more evidence of that.