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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JungleInvestor who wrote (948)	3/4/2001 10:23:46 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

A semiconductor comment - Someone who I respect but can't mention made this point recently - Now, this is re-written and second hand, but comes from seriously knowledgable people who are on the buy side & and advise others on the buy side... **** here 's the point *** The semiconductor companies did well (got rich) selling to the PC market and now the cell phone market. PC sales have peaked, and are starting to decline long term. Cell phone handset are expected to take up the slack. But there is MUCH less silicon in a cell phone handset than a PC. So we expect a secular decline in semiconductor sales. *** My comment - the semi business is now geared up to supply PC AND cell phones AND aggressive buying of telecom chips. Low end and very small cell phones will recover, but PC is in a long term decline and the telecom stuff has about a half year of inventory sitting around. With sales dropping, a half year of inventory can last a long time... My expectation is that the semi business will decline until maybe the first quarter of 2002, maybe even to fall of 2002. I expect at least one 'false dawn' between now and then, (sort of like Japan has had). From a stock price prespective, I expect some very sharp bear market rallies - there is a lot of money sitting around. I also expect these rallies to be used for distribution by a number of big insitutuions & and some mutual funds, based on the item above. Would not be surprised if there was a sharp rally this week- get Naz to 2700 ? Best of luck to everyone.