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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Poet who wrote (9853)	3/4/2001 10:40:31 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

I like long term puts on some of the big boys myself. However they are very protective of stocks that make up the DOW index. GE IBM etc. Look at that mysterious "rally" we had in IBM. The ANGELL BS, etc etc. They are fighting like cats and dogs to prop this up. I do think we MAY get a nice rally soon. 1) We are way oversold 2) Everyone is still desparate to time the bottom 3) A rate cut is coming. 4) We are far below max pain and I think the option pits will force a rally towards those points I am very heavy in cash and trying to stay in less manipualted issues like KSS, although I do have a nice position in IBM. After the next rate cut rally stalls, I will go hugely short again. M

To: Poet who wrote (9853)	3/5/2001 2:06:04 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10876

Could you ask any harder questions? <ggg> I have been trying to make up my mind on gold all weekend. Some of the miners look OK but I don't like the sharp drops in DROOY, HGMCY etc. As a group, they broke above their old trend lines but failed to get through the weekly downward channel. My favorite HGMCY might be forming an inverted Head and shoulder but it is a tough call and as I said, I didn't like the drops the last couple of days. Gold is so manipulated now that I am a disbeliever in these rallies just because so many shorts have a vested interest in suppressing rally attempts. Countries don't like it moving up either because it shows the devaluations on their currencies so it is an us against the world type thing. Basically, it looks OK but I am not going to play it since I expect it to stall due to all the conflicts of interest in Gold trading in free markets and who it's enemies are. GE is also tough. As the other poster said, The DOW is being propped up. I show GE ready to break if it can make a lower low which would break support and send it to 36 but I show it short term over sold so I expect a bounce for a day or two at least. I wouldn't worry about it unless it gets over 48 which is hard resistance. After that bounce, it should hopefully break down. Of course I have been expecting the DOW to break down for weeks now and am getting really frustrated. <ggg> I am getting a bit afraid to short anything so close to the FOMC meeting. All those record commercial shorts should at least be considering covering some of those ahead of the FOMC and that could add fuel for a brief rally which in bear markets are known for being fast and furious. I may hold off on shorting anything for a while until after the meeting unless there are clear signs they are taking it lower. I am actually looking at long plays for this expected brief rally. I do expect a sharp down move first though to provide me a trigger entry. This probably sounds like a bunch of contradictions but I expect a sharp one or two days down, then a counter trend rally into the end of month before we head south again probably taking out the lows across the whole market, DOW, NDX, SPX etc. Of course futures so far aare already showing this is wrong. <ggg> I want to get MMM on the short side. That one is really taunting me! <g> Good Luck, Lee