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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2259)	3/5/2001 11:44:29 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, I was in the Nasdaq 1450 camp for a while now, but I have done a tremendous amount of research and reading on the "bubble," and I have to change my view of where the bottom will lie and what we will see then. First, I am more inclined to think 1450 will merely act as strong support for a large rally in the Nasdaq. This will probably occur sometime in the 4th quarter of this year as people finally think the bottom is in and 2002 Q1 should resume earnings growth. From there, we could have a 40% year in 2002 into 2003. However, I think we could see a "double dip" recession, which essentially would be catastrophic to the markets and morale of the country. I suspect a slow bleed from the 2350 level (in 2002) to 800 and below possibly. The same thing will be replicated in the S&P500 with the first stop at 950 and subsequent stop at 600 where we should level out. On the macroeconomic front, we could trough out at 10% unemployment and many serious questions facing the nation. The move towards 8% savings should pretty much shave all economic growth for the next decade. I don't suspect George Bush will be president after 2004 either. Like father like son, BUT Blame Clinton, Greenspan, and Rubin.