To: Don England who wrote (1070 ) 3/7/2001 1:33:01 AM From: cnyndwllr Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 23153 Don, you may be right that this is the start of the "false" spring rally that will take us to summer and then leave us broken with our heads in the fence unless we get out. (You did say that didn't you? gg) Just a couple of but's though. One thing is that even a false start to a false rally can cause some grief. Watch out for any econ news on inflation coming out this month. I don't have the schedule of fed econ news but it seems that there is something at the end of this week and then later this month we get cpi's and more. I have a feeling we aren't going to like them and if that is right I think we will dive off heartbreak hill and land in desolation valley. If the numbers don't scare anyone then we are off to the races with rate cuts coming later this month from the fed UNLESS there is some blowup in the middle east and oil is a much bigger problem than the huge problem it is causing in the economy already. OK, now it's MY turn to ask the questions. Whats "to au in deflation" mean? Why is an open wound like a "heart-on-my-sleeve democrat?" What are "scrips?" Finally, I'm not sure it's a great plot to rob the innocent. I'm afraid the innocent have already been robbed and those left are a little more dangerous. A tough old guy I know told me one time that if you're in a poker game and you don't know who the fish is, YOU'RE the fish. Every morning I look in the mirror and check for signs of gills before I turn on the computer. So far so good but I have the feeling that if I fail to check one day, I'll be trader's history. Also in that same vein, sometimes the little guy may be able to hamstring one of the big elephants. We're smaller, quicker and a lot more scared cause it is, after all, our money. The only way this can work for us is if we move in before the herd, move out before the herd and, or, find pastures to feed on that the herd doesn't frequent. It requires the ability not to be herded. Thus the image of the everchanging, grey flock herded to and fro by analysts. I think that some of our best efforts should be to try to see where the herd is headed and why. Based on that we should try to see whether or not the "whys" justify the apparent movements of the herd. If so we should join in and time our exit. If not we should hold back and track in a different direction even though it means we get left out for a while, because sure enough the big ones were zigging while us little ones were zagging. I know that I have been left holding for spikes that never came because the real money that moves stocks and markets was signaling buy and hold, while it was selling and trading. (editor's note; if you understood this paragraph please explain it to me. I need help with it. I must post it, however, because there is an off chance it may have some meaning which will occur to me later.) Goodnight. Ed