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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (2181)	3/7/2001 10:41:53 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Jeez, that was a heckof a "rejection" at Dow 10,7....looked like Dikembe Mutumbo stuffing one of those little point guards...Plenty of time left in the game, though... Would be great for longs if Dow can rally back, thru 10,7...key level, no doubt...

To: Paul Shread who wrote (2181)	3/7/2001 10:45:17 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Re: PEs...I think you have to do it on a company-by-company basis...not in aggregate on Naz (for the points you mentioned)....my assumption is that if Csco, Brcm, et al go back to 1991-1994 pricing.....the Naz has to go down more.. I guess this all depends if one views the real bubble as beginning in 98 or 95....As indicated, I am still open to argument, just wanted to get some reaction to my thought..

To: Paul Shread who wrote (2181)	3/7/2001 11:04:44 AM
From: DukeCrow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

The earliest earnings data I can get on the Nasdaq is from January 1999. Using that earnings data and adjusting the price down to the October 1998 lows, I get an approximate Nasdaq aggregate PE of 36 (38.5 for the Nasdaq-100). This is not very exact since to get an accurate calculation I would need the earnings data for October 1998, but it does give a reference point for comparison. I think the point you make about all the unprofitable companies now in the Nasdaq is very true. Currently, the Nasdaq's PE is considerably higher than the Nasdaq-100's. In 1998, they were relatively equal. I think it would be more prudent to track the Nasdaq-100's PE at the present time because of all the junk equity that was floated over the last 2 years; that junk really skews the earnings figures. Also, the Nasdaq-100 is a tradeable index, so it's probably more important to track that than the Nasdaq Comp, anyway. Ali