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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DukeCrow who wrote (2188)	3/7/2001 11:33:53 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Many thanks, Ali. Sounds like the NDX and COMPX still have substantially higher valuations than they did at the bottom in October 1998. The COMPX is up about 63% off its Oct. 1998 low, and the NDX up about 87%; would be interesting to know how much the earnings of the top 10 or so weighted companies at that time have grown since then. (Not trying to give you more work to do, but thanks for the good research.) The NDX is loaded with companies that are just coming into profitability (I guess that's what differentiates them from the unprofitable COMPX stocks -g-). ARBA, JNPR, ITWO, BRCM, PMCS are just a few that come to mind. Once upon a time, no one would take a company public until it had three profitable quarters behind it. There are a whole host of NDX companies that are only getting to 2-3 profitable quarters now, and they've been publicly traded for some time. Not sure how much the increased profitability of those companies will help the NDX's PE down the road -- or whether they will even continue to achieve increased profitability. The market craze of 1999-2000 essentially made the public markets VCs -- a role and risk level they are entirely unsuitable for. VCs can have 39 companies in a portfolio fail if the 40th is JNPR; the public markets cannot function that way. The implication of an IPO used to be that a company had already gone through a weeding out process; hopefully the public markets will get back to that role, and are probably already well on their way. JMHO...

To: DukeCrow who wrote (2188)	3/7/2001 1:30:04 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

DukeCrow, >>>> . Using that earnings data and adjusting the price down to the October 1998 lows, I get an approximate Nasdaq aggregate PE of 36 (38.5 for the Nasdaq-100). <<<< >>>> I think the Nasdaq-100's aggregate PE is about 51 right now based on January 2001 earnings data. That may not be exactly correct when calculated with current earnings numbers, but I don't have those. <<<< For this discussion, lets use those numbers of 38.5 and 51. Basicly, relying on the accuracy of those numbers(not saying Im doubting them), that would imply that the NDX-100 could drop about another 25% to get back to a similar environment of the OCT 1998 lows. Based on the recent lows, that would put the NDX around 1380, which is in line with the 1400-1500 support area. Thanks for the info Duke

To: DukeCrow who wrote (2188)	3/7/2001 1:30:04 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

DukeCrow, >>>> . Using that earnings data and adjusting the price down to the October 1998 lows, I get an approximate Nasdaq aggregate PE of 36 (38.5 for the Nasdaq-100). <<<< >>>> I think the Nasdaq-100's aggregate PE is about 51 right now based on January 2001 earnings data. That may not be exactly correct when calculated with current earnings numbers, but I don't have those. <<<< For this discussion, lets use those numbers of 38.5 and 51. Basicly, relying on the accuracy of those numbers(not saying Im doubting them), that would imply that the NDX-100 could drop about another 25% to get back to a similar environment of the OCT 1998 lows. Based on the recent lows, that would put the NDX around 1380, which is in line with the 1400-1500 support area. Thanks for the info Duke