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Technology Stocks : SDLI - JDSU transition -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (608)	3/8/2001 12:22:44 AM
From: Jack Hartmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3294

Where to Invest Now — the Sequel (picks JDSU) By Monica Rivituso, Roben Farzad, Cintra Scott and Russell Pearlman March 7, 2001 CONFIDENCE. Consumer confidence, investor confidence, self-confidence. What we're learning as the media age marches into the 21st century with all its speakers blaring is that the way people feel about themselves and their financial well-being is becoming increasingly crucial to the well-being of the economy as a whole. It's true, of course, that no one person's wellspring or lack of confidence can drive economic and investment trends. But at a time when small group actions can be amplified globally in just moments via the Internet and television, strong or weak sentiment in any given direction can quickly build into a self-fulfilling prophesy. Delight becomes euphoria. Testiness becomes deep gloom. Consider what's happened in the year since the Nasdaq Composite hit its celebrated high of 5048.62 on March 10, 2000. At the time, if you had ventured the opinion that investor disaffection with tech stocks would drive the index down 56% over the next 12 months you would have been laughed out of the cocktail party. But a pall has dropped over consumer and investor behavior that has surprised even the most bullish analysts. As we point out in "Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself," the economy remains in relatively good shape (low inflation, plenty of jobs, etc.,). The danger is that persistent recession talk on the evening news will restrain consumer spending, giving waning confidence a momentum of its own. The good news is that when the market and economy snap back, it's likely the confidence effect could work in reverse. In the meantime, its time to start looking for companies likely to benefit when it does — or even before. That's why we decided to rerun the annual "Where to Invest" screens that have identified winners for our readers in six of the last eight years — including 2000. We last ran the screens in late November for the January issue of SmartMoney Magazine (see "Where to Invest in 2001") and that collection of 10 recommended stocks is up about 20% on average since then (and about 8.9% since the beginning of the year). Not bad when you consider the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 4.4% and 10%, respectively. Those picks were from five different sectors that appeared cheap relative to their earnings growth potential: apparel, semiconductors, telecom services, energy production and oil drilling. All, with the possible exception of telecom services, remain attractive at this point. But given the market's continued decline, we thought more opportunities might present themselves if we ran the screens again in the first week of March. To identify the most attractive sectors today, we examined the more than 2,000 companies in the Zacks Investment Research database that have a market value of more than $400 million. We grouped them into their sectors and compared current sector valuations and projected growth rates to historic levels, looking for groups of stocks that appear undervalued relative to their growth prospects. Once we had some likely candidates, we checked our list with the sector analysis of two respected research firms: Garzarelli Capital and the Leuthold Group. Once we felt confident about our sectors, we then looked within them for the most promising companies. Dissecting the market's many industries is helpful in a number of ways. For one, sectors that you might have thought were undervalued — like software or pockets of telecom — actually aren't. They're among the biggest losers over the past 12 months as measured by the drop from their 52-week highs. But so many tech stocks were so richly priced to begin with, that they're just now coming into reasonable range. Likewise, when we saw that drugs were trading at more than a 600% premium to the sector's five-year average price-to-earnings ratio, we decided to pass. So, what did we turn up? After poring over the data, we identified five sectors that looked promising over the long-run based on both valuation and growth prospects. One, semiconductors, will look familiar to readers of "Where to Invest in 2001." The others are retailers, telecom equipment, electronics manufacturers and machinery. Keep in mind that we're focusing on the long-term picture here. Some of these sectors have potential but are getting battered in the short term. There are also some stocks within these industries that have enjoyed a healthy run-up (we'll flag those for you as well). But overall, we feel these five market areas offer a good combination of growth and attractive valuations. We, of course, offer no promises. But they're poised to do well if the economy improves as the year progresses. Telecom Equipment Cisco System(CSCO) JDS Uniphase ( JDSU ) Machinery Dover Corp (DOV) Milacron Inc ( MZ ) Electronics Manufacturers Celestica Inc (CLS) Flextronics Intl ( FLEX) Sanmina Corp ( SANM ) Retail Abercrombie&Fitch (ANF ) Semiconductors Company Current PMC-Sierra (PMCS) Vitesse Semiconductor ( VTSS ) Energy Diamond Offshore (DO ) smartmoney.com Jack

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (608)	3/8/2001 10:03:16 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3294

A Columbia, MD–based company, symbolically residing on Albert Einstein Drive, Corvis made a breakthrough in optical transmission when Williams Communications (WCG) effectively transmitted multiple 2.5 Gbps optical signals across more than 3,200 kilometers without electrical regeneration using Corvis' integrated solutions on July 11, 2000. 16 January 2001, Williams extended its two–year contract with Corvis from $200 million to a multi–year $300–million agreement. Notice they never mention how many channels were used? Until someone other than a holder of Sheik-sized portfolios of warrants tests their equipment I'll be a Corvis skeptic. Pat