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To: Rarebird who wrote (77088)	3/8/2001 10:39:21 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 436258

<Heinz, just exactly who is buying all those new Centex homes? Are most of them fools or Polys? > I've asked myself the same question, living in the biggest boom town on the planet I see continue robust sales. All I can think of is that there is pent up demand still being released by the good economy. DAK

To: Rarebird who wrote (77088)	3/8/2001 10:39:50 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

feel free to copy my pm to you to the thread...

To: Rarebird who wrote (77088)	3/8/2001 10:45:30 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Rarebird, Gary Shilling's book " Deflation" has some nice charts of Japanese real estate vs. Nikkei the answer to your question is lag time. It takes some time for damage in the paper economy to impact the real economy especially when the stock market always? comes back! Mike

To: Rarebird who wrote (77088)	3/8/2001 12:18:54 PM
From: dpl	Respond to of 436258

FWIW,this is my slant on it. The bubble economy that we are in is based on three bubbles not one. 1.The tech stocks represented by the NAS.This is the smallest 2.The rest of the market, the next in size.You can use the S&P for this. 3.Residential real estate.This is the biggest. The first bubble (tech) burst.The result is the economy went from +6% to -.5 in a hurry. If the next bubble (S&P) bursts it will have a bigger effect on the economy and the unemployment rate will rise. This is important because the third bubble, which is the biggest of all,will only burst if the unemployment rate gets high enough.The unemployment rate is the catalyst because weakness in the economy drives down rates which is "good" for real estate. The important thing here is the S&P.It is both an indicator for the economy and cause and effect.As long as the S&P does not crash through 1200 the economy is NOT getting killed. Now back to our regular scheduled program. David