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To: Bucky Katt who wrote (8127)3/8/2001 12:06:41 PM
From: James Strauss  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13094
 
William:

The build up in consumer debt can only go so far... As those monthly payments become more burdensome, we'll begin to see a sharp dropoff in demand and consumer confidence... We'll also see a rise in bankruptcies...

I think the FED will cut by 3/4 of a point this month for shock value... Anything less will intensify the depth of the recession... An example would be an increase in the rate of unemployment... That would increase the speed at which consumer confidence and demand drops... Housing starts would drop... The price of lumber and copper would drop along with demand... Fewer appliances and home furnishings would be bought as the housing market shrinks... Real estate deflation could follow... Grim isn't it... : > That's why the FED needs to cut rates in the 3/4 point range... Otherwise Alan may be on the street corner selling apples... : >

Jim