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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: barrcuda who wrote (88418)	3/8/2001 3:00:06 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Roger that. Good day for the golds. Slider and Roebear are more active and have done a great deal more DD than I've done in the precious metals. But do confess to adding a nice block position in HGMCY a few days ago at 4 13/16 as it pulled back from its powerful breakout. So now very long AEM and HGMCY. Isopatch

To: barrcuda who wrote (88418)	3/8/2001 6:29:04 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

WHO LET OLE' YELLER OUT ? - Gold is rockin~ And with Japan's Prime Minister saying they are not just in a recession; but also on the brink of a potential financial collapse - why shouldn't/wouldn't it ? Japan must & will export itself out of an allready self-acknowledged recession & teetering total financial collapse. Japan is the worlds 2nd largest economy. Japan holds massive amounts of US bonds & equities that it will be liquidating. Japan's Banking Industry may possibly be the single most screwed up financial sector in the history of the modern world... but; some actually have the audacity here to say the Japan's present problems from the collapse of their bubble; are an omen of things to come for the US & the collapse of our present bubble. Remember that article showing 6,7 Major US Banks with derivative positions that were multiples of their capitalization ? ... let a global currency crisis unfold & watch what Gold does - it will make 1980 seem tame - bank on it. The Asian contagian part deux - is going to bring the Asian invasion in auto's & electronics. Japan is going to have to play hardball & export its way out of a potential collapse. This will add massive pressure to the US economy & negatively impact US corporate earnings to a significant degree. Gold & PM stocks are the ONLY true defensive pureplay in this environment. A Japanese Bank crisis - which could be right dead ahead; given the coming required mark to market of their year end equity holdings - could break the derivative bubble and imho; absolutely would trigger a US Banking crisis & remember Bill Seidman said that the number of US banks that would fail in the next banking crisis would be DOUBLE of what failed in our S&L crisis. All the pieces are falling into place for a true once in a generation history lesson via Mr. Market - unfolding here. Sold 1/2 of all my Oils & rotated to gold at the open due to the Japanese situation. Now 15% Oils (SLB CAM RIG NR PGO & offshore driller calls); 60% Gold/PM's & 25% cash - nothing short; but watching Nat Gas stocks for puts/shorts here on further strength. BRR was a reserve story - stocks that are getting taken up that don't have a strong reserve value weighting to their story are strong short candidates at the first sign of technical weakness - just like Dec 31st; we'll let you know "WHEN" (VBG)... GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGOT GGGGGOOOOOOOO000oooold ? ...unfortunately; anyone who was here in the 97-98 cycle; should be getting a little "Asian Contagian" Deja Vu all over again - feeling in the gut & the trigger finger. A slowing US & Japanese economy is NOT what extensions to Oilpatch Boom Cycles are made of. This is, was & will allways be a cyclical sector & there is one hell of a lot of profit out there in OSXland that no one (err few) have taken off the table. Admittedly the fundamentals & activity are strong; but in case no one has looked lately - many of our stocks are selling at PE levels above many tech stocks... there are few cheap stocks left and there are are now more than a few, that are historically - well; let's say "ripe" at these levels... No one ever went broke cashing in huge gains atop a cyclical cycle & imho; 75% of all the Oilpatch traders here will NOT be profitable 6-12 mos from this day forward; they will rollover & chase dips that never bounce back. Most assuredly; we'll soon see the "thread wars" break out over buying the dips; with pom - poms waving & running commentary that the stocks are too cheap, that the price of Oil, or Gas is still bullish, that the earnings are still ramping etc... ... however; those are all comments that will be heard on the downward slope of the cycle that not only never comes back from that first dip; but accelerates to the downside....and remember; the appearnce of peak earnings on the near horizon; not their arrival - is what traditionally marks a shareprice top... Will it be here off of the seasonal March to April move ? Will it be off the traditional August move into the Sept shoulder selloff we've seen so often - ala the Sept '99 E&P collapse/selloff into sterling fundamentals ? ... no one can answer that; but I'll put my money on the fact that less than 10% will see it, will sell it and will avoid the rollover - bank on it. PS: Here's a little "REALITY" check chart: siliconinvestor.com #1. XAU/Gold +25% 2. XNG/Gas +23% 3. OSX/oil svc +15% 4. XOI/Oils + 8% 5. DOW + 3% 6. S&P - 7.5% 7. NASDQ - 32% GOLD the #1 sector... The best offense was indeed - the best defense - whodathunkit (VBG)? ... and the $64 question is: Which of these indices is STILL at basically a 15 year cyclical low ? Gold; if you "aint" got it; you'll soon wish you had... ...and remember; Pigs get Fat & Hogs get slaughtered... remember Dec 31 ? ... E&P double top anyone ? Will we get to break out our Pink Floyd album for the OSX's theme song at 140 ? Ciao~ ... they call me mello-yello $$$~