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To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (129589)3/8/2001 9:53:08 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Respond to of 186894
 
re: "assuming economic conditions don't worsen".

Right.

That's a big, big caveat.

There are some tentative signs that, in the overall economy, things are bottoming. Consumer sentiment is at extreme lows, but consumer spending seems to be holding up better than you'd expect, given the sentiment numbers. And, although unemployment is going to go up, that's off a generation low. Same thing for inflation: the Fed has a lot of maneuvering room, they can cut rates a lot more, before inflation becomes a worry.

But, in the various chip sectors, there is no hint of a bottom in sight. News of the last couple of months indicates a further worsening of inventories, margins, end-user demand, capacity utilization. And it is, as Intel just said, bad news in chips for PCs, telecom, everything.

Whether it's a V or a U-shaped downturn, we are still on the left side of the curve. I'm short AMAT at 49 and TXN at 37, and have no current postition in INTC.



To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (129589)3/8/2001 10:10:37 PM
From: Amy J  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
RE: "My guess is that nobody knows"

Nobody knows. Not even Greenspan.

One can only guess.

I think we're going to be in this for a spell.

quote.bloomberg.com

03/08 Yen Falls as Miyazawa Says Japan's Finances Close to Collapse
By Miki Anzai
Tokyo, March 8 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell to a 20-month low against the dollar after Japanese Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa said Japan's finances are close to collapse and in urgent need of reform.

INTC $31 after hours.

But all cycles end, and this will too.

Regards,
Amy J



To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (129589)3/9/2001 12:10:38 AM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Shoibal, the second half is 6 months long <g> - so a recovery could start in December and still be in the second half.
Looking at ww semiconductor shipments [the red line] I would expect a few more months of decline. suite101.com
Prior cycles took the better part of a year from top to bottom. This data is from SIA semichips.org

Gottfried