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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (40106)	3/8/2001 10:07:28 PM
From: daggy	Respond to of 54805

Mike and Lurqer This is one long term lurker that would love to see this conversation continue, whether here or in another forum. I have read one of Dents books (Roaring 2000s) and although the case he makes for demographics driving the cycles of the market seems a little myopic (baby boom, baby boom, baby boom), it certainly was convincing to a macroeconomically-challenged individual such as myself (or is that micro? - see what I mean). Someone recently posted an article by Bill Gross from the PIMCO web site that was very similar in nature to Dents philosophy. As someone who has intentions of joining you early retirees (yes - you should detect a note of envy, Mike), a long term bear starting late this decade is not too appealing to me. I am interested in seeing the conversation continue.

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (40106)	3/8/2001 10:52:39 PM
From: BirdDog	Respond to of 54805

I have a question. I have to admit I am not very good at finding out things like this. But I would like to know how much of the lack of IT spending is due to fear, and how much of it is due to actual lack of funds to spend. I am only guessing off the top of my head that most the lack is simply due to fear. If so, things could bounce back very quickly... BirdDog

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (40106)	3/8/2001 10:55:29 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I'll know the discussion is especially worthwhile if many others join us. Completely concur. makes me think you've read one or both of Harry Dent's books. Right? Well ... uhh. Would you believe three? <gg> Since you mentioned the '29 debacle and the lengthy time it took for the economy and stocks to recover, I should also mention that I don't think any current-day comparisons with that period are viable. Similarly, I don't think comparisons with Japan's hapless stock market have any merit. In both examples, things are very different from 1929 and very different from Japan's economic boom-and-bust-based infrastructure. I don't pretend to be an expert on either, but I'll stick with my comparatively superficial understanding of the differences until someone proves to me that the comparisons really do have merit. Well I both agree and disagree. In both cases (US '30s and Japan '90s) a significant demographic trough, IMO induced a secular bear market. I also believe that the severity of both bears were exacerbated by some remarkable pigheadedness (to continue our animal analogies). Both the '30s Fed fighting imaginary inflation and Japan's reluctance to address its banking problem made serious problems worse. I agree that neither of these secular bears should be compared to our current "mild" bear correction. I fully expect that a year from now the current bear will be banished back to its hibernating den. What has me worried is the looming demographic trough in those producer/consumers that may portend a true secular bear later this decade. My beliefs are based more on convictions about the role technology -- U. S. technologies well entrenched in gorilla-like strength in particular -- will play in the world's economy over the very long haul. Well I can make the argument that the effects of significant technological revolutions (electronics and automotive in the '30s and microprocessors in the '70s) were swamped by demographically induced economic contractions. So why should we be sanguine about our economy in the hands of the "baby bust" generation? lurqer