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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (43401)	3/9/2001 12:21:47 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I think the problem is that Wall Street does not know whether Intel will reduce CAPEX. Sure, they say they won't, maintaining it is probably a good long term strategy, and they probably have the means to do it, but is it possible that things could get so bad that they were forced to cut it? I think that uncertainty is why AMAT is down today.

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (43401)	3/9/2001 12:35:14 PM
From: zsteve	Respond to of 70976

1) Yes 2) Yes but I just closed Apr. 47.5 puts, still some left.

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (43401)	3/9/2001 12:54:14 PM
From: mitch-c	Respond to of 70976

1) No. They'll reduce, but not much - say $7B vs. 7.5. 2) Yes. I think Semi-Equips will take a small, temporary hit when it happens (if ...), but that will be offset by a bounce from better visibility. - Mitch@onwardthroughthefog.SWAG

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (43401)	3/9/2001 1:02:31 PM
From: advocatedevil	Respond to of 70976

1) No 2) Yes FWIW, My guess is that Intel will be forced to eventually reduce capex, only they probably won't take it down much. (to $6.5B perhaps?) If this were to happen, it likely would not have a significant impact on the sector. Now, if they came out prior to their next earnings release with a capex cut, that might be a different story (given of course they've been vigorously defending the spending plans). AdvocateDevil

To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (43401)	3/9/2001 2:00:58 PM
From: JSwanson	Respond to of 70976

Intel will not reduce it's $7.5B capex spending budget. I say INTC will reduce its capex. INTC's Planned vs. Actual Capex 1995-2000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Expected 2.9 4.1 4.5 5.3 3.0 5.0 Actual 3.6 3.2 4.5 3.6 3.4 6.7 Above from CSFB. The semi equip sector will not be significantly affected if Intel reduces it's $7.5B capex budget. Yes, given the magnitude of the other chip makers' cuts in capex, INTC's decision spend $7.5B tremendously helped offset the aggregate decline in capex for 2001. JS