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Non-Tech : Moguls Mantra to the Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SunSunM who wrote (80)	3/9/2001 8:05:21 PM
From: $Mogul	Respond to of 220

yes agree K. Chu. It is quite possible..and from the data that i have seen and gone over ... until corporate profits turn around..we have at least 3 quateters to go, In my humble opinion. Will have more detailed infor this weekend:)

To: SunSunM who wrote (80)	3/20/2001 4:37:24 PM
From: $Mogul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 220

The Fed's policy statement was crafted in a way meant to soothe investors who were hoping for a 75 basis point rate cut. The statement opens the door for an inter-meeting rate cut, should conditions warrant. To accomplish this, the Fed put a large degree of emphasis on the many risks facing the U.S. economy and by telling the markets that they would be watching monitoring developments closely. The Fed was so determined in their statement to tell the markets that they are aware of the numerous risks to the economy that they listed a plethora of them. The Fed's laundry list included: pressures on profit margins, the stock market decline, the recent unwanted build in inventories, and global economic conditions. Importantly, the Fed made reference to the emergence of excess productive capacity, a critical issue with respect to the degree to which current economic weakness is structural rather than cyclical. To the extent the Fed perceives the problems in the economy to be more structural than cyclical, rate cuts are likely to continue to be aggressive and low interest rates will stay in place for longer. The Fed's hint to the markets that they stand ready to cut interest rates again as conditions warrant is clearest in this statement: "In these circumstances, when the economic situation could be evolving rapidly, the Federal Reserve will need to monitor developments closely." The Fed typically uses the statement that they will "monitor developments closely" to tell the markets that are more apt than usual to change rates in response to inter-meeting developments than under more ordinary circumstances. While the statement is meant to be soothing, equity investors won't likely be easily pleased. Equity investors needed a larger rate cut to justify turning their backs on the recent swell of bearish news from Corporate America. In the near-term, it unlikely that this latest Fed action will turn stocks, despite the Fed's attempt to soothe investor anxieties. Equities are more likely to turn when Corporate America, and not the Fed, begins to deliver good news. But expect a jump in auto production and spending related to increased levels of housing turnover to lift economic data by the middle of next quarter and for equity investors to then begin to anticipate corporate earnings reports due out at the end of that quarter to be better than is now expected. At that point there'll be a shift out of bonds and into stocks with possibly great intensity.

To: SunSunM who wrote (80)	4/25/2001 9:27:46 PM
From: $Mogul	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 220

Here is my call going forward, New lows wil be made thsi year from this date. There will be no Summer rally but a Summer tank, and there will be no 2nd 1/2 recovery like the pundits and wall st media hype is callign for. May starts the Dow's historicaly worst 6 monthes of the year, and June starts the NASDAQ's worst. So if you have thought that you have seen the bottom liek everyone and there great aunt from Chicago... ahh.. Mogul says you have not. I am not revising my target at this point as we still have to hit my call..which wil happen. Then i will revise lower on the indexes..but lets make my first targets first. Short Term- Currently the Fed is still in ease mode and we are tailing out of earnings where we will then sell off. Earnings for Q2 should be even worse then Q1 so earnings warning period ahead in the next 2 monthes will plauge the unsuspected yet again. As for the Semi's they are more expensive now then back in January, due to revised lower earnings..not to mention they have no guidence and it is my beleif that Tech Slowdown May Outlast the Inventory Correction, where they see a bottom, as i do not. As for the consumer, I find the RESILIENCE OF US Retail Demand Surprising..I don't think the country who day in and day out don't have a firm grasp of what is going with the world around them understands the seriousness of what is looming. Yes, they will get a tax cut and yes they will be using it to pay higher utility costs and higher living expenses. A recession is nowhere near priced into this mkt. in my humble opinion. The fact remains that in post war history, when energy prices rise as much as they have, each time has led to a recession. The days of act like a ostrich and put your head in the sand, as what i can't see can't see me and can't hurt me is a pathetic stance. People are losing there jobs on a grandose scale, larger then i have ever witnessed in my lifetime..where will they all find work... As, for the US dollar..it has been very resillant..but it will now be time for it's true colors show..truth is the fed did a whimsical thing cutting rates (and will continue to one of the lowest prime rates in many decades), not only will this hurt the US dollar but it wil hurt trade and make forigen money flee, the amount of money supply they are creating is absurb..all this to make the US people feel everything is ok. Second, suffering business are already tapped out fully leverged and facing extreme financial opposistion and inventory. Can you imagine when it comes the tiime to actully raise rates... nothing goes down forever... Any forgin financial crisis will seriously affect us banks, and it is my beleif that institutions like JBM and BofA, will suffer greatly..not to mention all the others.. I wish my onlookers to tread caution and do not risk capital, until there are signs of a recovering economy, which is currently far from in sight, contrary to popular beleif. I will be updating the call in due time. All the best, -Mogul