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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (40166)	3/10/2001 12:54:52 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

inmydreamsI'mbuying.pov Anything like fantasy baseball?

To: tekboy who wrote (40166)	3/10/2001 1:40:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

re: we might be close If you look at the daily stock charts for many of the Gorillas, they are in what TAers would call a "waterfall" pattern. That means they are setting new lows day after day, maybe pausing for a few days at most, before resuming their plunge again. This indicates that there is no support in sight. Sure, the bottom may be tomorrow. But it might just as easily be another 50% lower. If you have any cash, stay that way. If you are holding, and you are really and truly a LTB&H investor, now is the time when your resolve will be tested. And if your time investing horizon isn't measured in years, you might as well sell now and take your losses, because there is zero indication that things are going to get better soon. The U.S. economy, or at least the high tech and manufacturing part of it, is heading for a recession. Japan, having failed for a decade to do the obvious structural reforms needed, is slipping into recession, again. The rest of E. Asia is tied to Japan, and will go down with them. Europe looks like the only strong economic area. Some of the Gorillas (only some) are getting to where the PE is reasonable, and you aren't paying for earnings a decade away, and you aren't assuming EPS growth rates of 100-300%. QCOM looks like it may be forming a double bottom at 50, with support there. EMC might be forming a less secure bottom at 34. But for most of the rest, from CSCO to NTAP and most of the others, the stocks are in free-fall. The momentum investors have fled, the last Buy-The-Dipsters have been slaughtered, and the Value Investors still haven't stepped in. No, they haven't, not yet. Most of the Gorillas are still (yes, still) selling at PEs above any reasonable expectations for growth rates. And we have, at the very least, one more earnings season to go like the last one, with 2-5 tech companies warning after the bell every day, day after day. That's the optimistic scenario, if we get the sharp V-shaped recovery. If we get the U-shaped recovery, then there may be a year of earnings seasons like the last. Sorry, but that's the way it looks, to me. For now, I am selling the rallies, shorting anything that raises its head above the crowd, and (very cautiously) buying the dips. I intend, at some point, to sell the medical equips and drug companies and Old Economy stocks I'm holding, which have held up OK, and use the cash to buy Gorillas. But not yet.