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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mariner who wrote (40171)	3/10/2001 2:16:16 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

The Gorilla Game, a 1997 best-seller The author of that article could at least get that fact right. The first manual was published in 1998. --Mike Buckley

To: mariner who wrote (40171)	3/10/2001 2:20:47 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Welcome back to home port, mariner. It's good to have you posting here again. The article you post shares a common theme with others I've seen recently, and shares common misconceptions. Mr. Quon's lead-in is based on his erroneous perception that Yahoo is a Gorilla, and the depth of his research is demonstrated by his comment that the Gorilla Game was "a 1997 best-seller", when it wasn't copyrighted until 1998. As well his prediction that "Cisco must now deal with low double-digit growth (10-15%)", a figure he most likely transposed from the pc sector, shows a serious lack of understanding of the infrastructure sector. But his biggest mistake is overlooking the fact that the GG is a long term strategy, and that attempting to judge its merit by measuring from the peak to the bottom of a one year bear cycle is unreasonable. I'm sure we'll see many more like it, at least until the nasdaq starts its recovery. >> some of his comments regarding valuation might be worthy of reconsideration in the context of gorilla gaming in the future. We've been trying, mariner, but so far we've only been able to identify peaks and bottoms in the rear view mirror, which isn't very useful. I'm still waiting for someone to propose a metric that will pass scrutiny. uf

To: mariner who wrote (40171)	3/10/2001 2:28:02 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 54805

deleted. eom.

To: mariner who wrote (40171)	3/10/2001 2:28:18 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Thanks for those articles. The way I look at it, there are different classes of investors, each with their own characteristic attitudes, who might own a stock at any given time: 1. Momentum Investors, who buy a stock because it is going up, and sell it when it has stopped going up (hopefully before it's crashed too far). They pay no attention to valuation parameters. "Don't fight the trend" is their motto. 2. Enthusiasts, who buy the story. If a company is going to be making the NextTechGismo that everyone wants, Enthusiasts buy the stock. They, also, don't care whether the stock is at a PE of 20 or 200. "You can't pay too much for a good company" is their motto. 3. Value investors, who buy a company with a low PE, low P/S, low P/B. Growth-At-A-Reasonable-Price investors are a sub-catagory of Value investors. "Don't pay too much" is their motto. During the market bubble of 1999-2000 (or perhaps the bubble began in 1995 and is still going on), Momentum and Enthusiasm was the way to make money. Value went out of style, because it didn't work for a prolonged period. IMO, the longterm history of the market is that Value investing works better than the other 2 methods. And we are now returning to more normal market conditions. IMO, the Gorillas will never regain the P/E and P/S heights they reached in the recent past. 1999-2000 and 1925-1929 are twice-a-century anomalies. IMO, going forward, it is best to buy a stock when the Momentum and Enthusiast investors have given up on it, and only the Value investors are left. IMO, the best method is to use the Gorilla Game rules to pick which stocks you will invest in, but use Value rules to decide at what price you'll buy. There is no point in talking to Enthusiasts or Momentum investors about Value, as long as their methods work. They are not amenable to persuasion, as long as they see their portfolios going up and up. In 1999, and in 2000, this thread was 100% Enthusiasts. Mike B. and UF still are Enthusiasts. This is just my observation, please don't react with outrage or ridicule.