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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (40238)	3/11/2001 11:42:04 AM
From: saukriver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

And, if the U.S. government hadn't done some really stupid things with interest rates and tariff wars, the Depression quite possibly could have been over by 1931 or 1932. Interesting, since the Senate will now consider adding "triggers" to Bush's tax cut. These would partially undo the proposed cut (i.e. hike taxes) if revenue slows. That foreshadows raising taxes in a big way just when the economy sucks. I suggest reasonable people can disagree on the wisdom of the scale of Bush's tax cut, but this "trigger" idea may rival the Smoot-Hawley Tariff in its folly.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (40238)	3/11/2001 12:57:51 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

This is an important topic, and strikes at the heart of LTB&H. Agree. That's why I thought it worthy of discussion on a ltb&h thread. you won't be able to know ahead of time. There is no way to time it. The only way I can think of, to prepare, is to assume any cyclical bear could turn into a secular bear, and invest accordingly Unfortunately, that IMO says you abandon ltb&h while in a secular bull market. Historically ltb&h is about the best strategy within a secular bull market (my earlier definition of secular bull - not MB's definition). So rather than "eliminate the disease by killing the patient", I've sought alternatives. So far, Dent is the best I have. If anyone else has even a proposal of a way to distinguish between the types of bear markets before they begin, I'd be more than a little interested. If one holds a position as a bear begins - isn't that the same as "betting" the bear will not be secular? To me it makes no sense to put one's capital in a position that is most likely to depreciate for decades. So it would seem you either abandon ltb&h, incur a ridiculous amount of risk (i.e. "I just hope this bear isn't secular".), or you attempt to determine, ahead of time, the probability that a secular bear may be in the offing. If the the current bear is secular (as some like Larry Summers believe) and not a bear correction (cyclical bear in your terminology), then I've "blown It". Before the end of this year we should know. lurqer

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (40238)	3/11/2001 5:40:48 PM
From: EnricoPalazzo	Respond to of 54805

So, you won't be able to know ahead of time. There is no way to time it. The only way I can think of, to prepare, is to assume any cyclical bear could turn into a secular bear, and invest accordingly (eliminate debt of all kinds, keep cash equal to 5 years of living expenses). That means giving up a lot of the potential gains available during bull markets. Sounds fair. But then, eliminating debt and keeping 5 years of living expenses in cash is probably smart in good times, too. ardethan@ihave5dayslivingexpensesinthebank.net

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (40238)	3/11/2001 5:49:50 PM
From: RRRoarr	Respond to of 54805

The only way I can think of, to prepare, is to assume any cyclical bear could turn into a secular bear, and invest accordingly (eliminate debt of all kinds, keep cash equal to 5 years of living expenses... This won't work if the Fed somehow loses fight against inflation somewhere down the road. $1M should be more than enough to live on for 5 yrs, but what if we have a 100,000% inflation? $1K won't be enough for 1 month let alone 5 yrs. Wonder what was the inflation situation circa 1929? Q-911