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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (40247)	3/11/2001 1:16:18 PM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

lurqer: Since Larry Summers is now supposed to be the new President of Harvard University, perhaps his view you cite will become better known, i.e. <<< or you attempt to determine, ahead of time, the probability that a secular bear may be in the offing. If the the current bear is secular (as some like Larry Summers believe) and not a bear correction (cyclical bear in your terminology), then I've "blown It". Before the end of this year we should know.>>> Do you have a link or url for Larry Summers views that the current bear is secular? What data is he using and what is his reasoning? Curious if he will use this as a backdrop for fundraising for Harvard. <G> And how he will deal with managing Harvard's nest egg? Best. Cha2

To: lurqer who wrote (40247)	3/11/2001 2:07:38 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

it would seem you either abandon ltb&h, incur a ridiculous amount of risk ... or you attempt to determine, ahead of time, the probability that a secular bear may be in the offing if the best economists and financial minds in the country can't do the third, there seems little reason to suspect ordinary investors can. But I don't see the first and second are the only choices. I mean, LTB&H is a strategy for equity investing, but it doesn't contain within itself any recommendation for how much of one's wealth should be in equities in the first place. In other words, it is not a contradiction to say, "I'm going to put 50% of my capital (or whatever) in equities and the rest in fixed income (or real estate, or whatever), but from now on that 50% will be LTB&H." tekboy@postmodernportfoliotheorist.pov

To: lurqer who wrote (40247)	3/11/2001 2:18:12 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

lurqer: One point worth considering is that if the investor chooses individual stocks carefully, then it is at least possible that one or more of them will do well as a long term holding even in a "secular bear" market. This goes to Peter Lynch's multibagger or home run idea. A couple of home runs or mutibaggers do wonders for the overall portfolio. An example I would cite, to no one's surprise here <G> is Qualcomm. One of the major strengths of Gorilla Game investing IMO is that it means choosing individual stocks carefully, not just picking index funds which reflect the overall market. And while there are waves and trends, there are variations in the path of individual stocks over time - especially a long time. So choosing well and holding may work as a major element within an overall approach. Best. Cha2