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To: sunshadow who wrote (71728)3/11/2001 9:00:55 AM
From: Square_Dealings  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
sunshadow,

The figure I give is a composite of

1)trading accounts at large commercial banks
2)broker dealer financing
3)loans to purchase securities
4)interbank reverse RPs

and the total is higher than March 2000 from the data I have. The largest increase seems to be in the trading accounts at large commercial banks. To me it looks like the banks are the ones that are going to be left holding the bag, which is as it should be imo.

Banks/brokers are excellent short candidates now imo.

M.



To: sunshadow who wrote (71728)3/11/2001 7:50:24 PM
From: Square_Dealings  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
My correspondence with R. Hahn, where I got the info.

> Richard,
>
> The data you presented this weekend is indeed alarming. I have commented on
> this in several places on the web and its getting a bit of controversy since
> many can not believe it.
>
> Could you please provide a link to the source of your data? Is the total a
> composite that you get from the components like broker dealer financing,
> interbank reverse RPs, etc. or does the Federal Reserver print the number
> you are presenting?
>
> Another question Im getting is, is there any component of this that could
> represent short positions (which have been increasing steadily over the last
> several months by commercial speculators as reported in the Commitment of
> Traders report).
>
> Thanks,
> Michael Finsterwald

Hi Michael,

Here's the Federal Reserve Link for the data....

federalreserve.gov

I use the second batch of Bank Assets and Liabilities, which are not
seasonally adjusted. The specific data is found in the "Security" line
item. "Consists of reverse RPs with brokers and dealers and loans to
purchase and carry securities."

federalreserve.gov

You are right about the "margin debt" including margined short positions in
addition to long positions. The knife cuts both ways.

Regards,
Richard