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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (2680)	3/12/2001 9:38:59 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

"Bear markets end in despair, not anger" Paul, well said. I totally agree.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (2680)	3/12/2001 9:54:32 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Paul, The NDX 1994 trendline was destroyed last week. It sits around 1890/1900 this week on the weekly.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (2680)	3/13/2001 1:24:14 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

>>bear markets end with despair, not anger. << I wrote this on our site over the weekend but I noticed the same thing. My point is buried in here but when I realized I hadn't posted this here, I figured I may as well post the whole thing. .......... By L3_Aka_L3 on Sunday, March 11, 2001 - 02:40 am: Edit Well, I have been scanning the charts and I see nothing that says this is the low. However, I still feel we are getting close. It is just a matter of capitulation and Fundamentals. I still think we could fall another 400-500 points in the NDX but as I said before it all depends on your long term outlook. I was looking through some charts and was focusing on past drops and recessions. I noticed that EMC fell from a high in 1987 of split adjusted 56 cents to a low of 6 cents by 1989 and stayed there basically until the end of 1990. Of course it is slightly higher now. -ggg- The NDX fell from 246 in July 1990 to a low of 162 in October 1990. While the market is pricing in a recession and fell Friday because the coming FOMC meeting won't likely cut rates drastically, we have to also look at the bright side of this. We are not going into a recession for sure yet. Unemployment is gradually going up as we wanted it to and hit 4.2 and stayed there for two reports now. That shows we are gliding into our target 4.5% rate and even an over shoot to 5% would not be that bad. The job losses thus far are as I said a few months back, in the unskilled labor area with the college trained and tech skilled workers not feeling the hit yet. Now I ask, who pays more into IRAs and 401K plans, Joe Six pack assmebly line worker living paycheck to paycheck or the higher paid skilled workers that put some aside for rainy days and contributes to their retirement plans? This money is going into funds and liquidity is the key to our market. Stocks like Ford are making new highs. Retail is still doing well as are cyclicals and raw material stocks. The big unknown right now that I see as a risk is foreign money. The US Dollar is forming a H&S that points to much lower levels and that could spur a flight out of our markets by the foreign money. That could hurt us so that is not bullish. On the other hand, South America and Asia are disaster areas so it is safer for them to stay here than repatriate funds at home. Europe is the only risk I see for funds to flee and return home. As I keep saying, I think time wise we are very close to a bottom. The main problem I see is so many trying to call that bottom. There is still no fear, no capitulation, no drop in interest etc. Reading around SI, all I see is anger by the perma bulls. They are still lashing out at Greenspan, the bears that shorted their stocks etc. I was reading the NTAP board there and they are still talking about how great the company is, how it will survive etc but no where do they admit it was grossly over valued and it is merely returning to a realistic level. The CSCO board is just comical in it's denial. I don't know what it will take for these people to finally cave in but we them to before we can hit a real bottom. They are still buying more and slowly going broke. Worse yet, they are buying RMBS, KK, MU, AMAT etc. Dan Niles was on Moneyweek today and I almost choked when they asked him about the Semis and Semi equips and would he buy them here. He said No way! He pointed out that INTC is still selling for over 6 times sales when past bottoms were around 2 times sales. He pointed out that the semi equips might look OK PE wise now but that the earnings part of the PE would be dropping hard over the next few quarters as the semis would not be buying new equipment during the slowdown. He pointed out how the foreign fabs are stock piling inventory for the turn when the whole root of our problem that started this mess was excess inventory. Basically it is the same problems as the investors. Everyone is so busy looking over the hump, they keep making hte valley deeper and longer and tougher to get over. What I am trying to say, is I think the economy has a good chance of making the soft landing that the FOMC is shooting for. However there is still too much optimism or denial in the investing community and valuations in some issues still needs to come down to lower values. While I think a low could arrive at any time, I also think before we finally bottom out, we could see the NDX at 1500, the DOW at 9300, SPX 1100 etc. For this push down however, I am focusing on NDX 1700. If we could get a sharp drop over the next few days, I would likely buy it ( Not really buys but covering my short calls) for a quick bounce. Longer term I think we will see those lower levels. My cycles are still a couple weeks out from a lasting wave 4 bounce point so I am trying to hold back until then. Heinz is targeting the 14th as a low, Don pointed out the 55 day cycle was around the FOMC meeting date of the 20th and my stuff is pointing to end of month also. Once again though, we have to worry about cycle inversions as I have a hard time thinking we could rally hard just as tax payers are trying to come up with cash to pay all the capital gains taxes form last year. We will see. I still have the long term cycle turn date pointing to Late August, early September. I think that is when the real low that signals the next bull run might occur. Anyway, I am off to study the charts some more. Good Luck, Lee

To: Paul Shread who wrote (2680)	3/13/2001 7:46:50 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

The 5 stages of Grief end in acceptance. Not sure if it is equivalent to bear market psychology or not, but I would suspect the first 4 are anyway. aomc.org Unfortunately, there is no set time period associated with each stage. I do believe the Denial stage is probably much longer than the others when talking bear markets. I would say the final stage probably takes place well past the actual bottom- and the bottom probably comes during stage 4, depression (which is equivalent to your despair observation). Have a nice day,<g> TW