Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (71976)	3/12/2001 11:23:47 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Great questions... Perhaps the next rally, and the source of funds for that rally will answer some of them... The FED is pumping liquidity into the economy pretty rapidly right now... Some argue that we won't see a recession. If money supply expansion continues, Graham-Dodd valuations may be postponed for a year... BWDIK.

To: bobby beara who wrote (71976)	3/12/2001 11:46:14 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Nasdaq chart sure looks like a third phase of the bear market finally under way - this last bit of gapping acceleration as it crashed through the '90s trendline... Tech bull definitively over, FINALLY - to me, it's almost a relief, not that I'm exactly looking forward to trading the bombed out, rubble-strewn landscape... Who knew that when they announced decimalization, they really meant decimation? Interesting the way that this great extended catastrophe continually produces new volunteers, on MDD as in the real unreal financial world, ready to grab the tatteered and blood-stained New Economy flag, run out and charge the machine gun nests. Seems like our Zeev is the latest volunteer. Hope he's the one who finally breaches the bear trenches, comes back with a big shiny medal, a promotion, and two weeks r&r, but I'm happy to be back here in my foxhole, humming Lili Marlene... I think there's a good argument that the post-1982 bull market in the Dow and S&P stocks has actually been over for some time - they long ago broke their uptrends and entered long, wide consolidations that may yet break down even further (if, say, the possible strike in Hollywood puts unbearable pressure on Brad and Jennifer), but even then would still seem unlikely to yield anything comparable to the drama queen Nasdaq's performance. TraderAlan over on the Daytrading Fundamentals thread thinks there may be a silver lining for technical traders. As I understand his notion, once the public's washed out and gone on to other fads, we could be left with a much less volatile, lower volume completely institution-dominated market conceivably more susceptible to classic (daily/weekly/monthly) TA and swing trading methods, less subject to the second-by-second everyday intraday insanity. I dunno - may be wishful thinking, but it's a thought, anyway.

To: bobby beara who wrote (71976)	3/13/2001 8:24:45 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, I think it has to do with the fact that mass psychology takes more than a year to change. Last April I was arguing with Don Hays (through George Cole's "offices"), that expecting the Naz to drop to 1400 in 2000, was "too fast" (it turned out that he was too pessimistic, and I was too optimistic, I had 2950 as the bottom for 2000 and missed by a solid 700 naz points or so). At 1900 or so, the 10 largest Naz stocks (with a combined market cap of about $1 Trillion) are selling at a PE below 30, while the Dow has a PE of about 25 (probably a little lower now), thus relative to each other, the Naz leadership, is cheaper. Yes the Nas has a higher beta, but, IMHO, it will cause the rallies in the Naz to be more powerful, while the decline may get it (near future) to just around the 1900. The relative beta of the Dow does not have to increase by much relative to the naz to breach 10,000 and even to go to 9600 (only 6% from where we are, and I am probably too optimistic here as well). Zeev