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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (2692)	3/13/2001 10:51:30 AM
From: adcpres	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Bobby: <<<"Enough with the Fed bashing silliness".>>> You are quite right about this. We alone are to blame for any miscalculations that result in losses or reduced gains from playing the market. No one is putting a gun to anybody's head to process a trade order. The FED has a very tough job in stabilizing the economy. In the feedback theory of complex dynamic systems it can be easily demonstrated that whenever delay is added to the forward path or feedback path of a stable system, that system more often than not becomes unstable and additional changes/adjustments must be made to maintain stability. That is what we have with the effect of interest rate adjustments since such policy changes never immediately impact the overall economy but take time to work and be effective. If that isn't bad enough, add in the effect of a VARIABLE TIME DELAY where economic conditions play a roll on the amount of time it takes for the rate adjustments to be effective. Think of how difficult it would be to drive a car along a winding road if after you stepped on the breaks or gas it took between 30 sec. to 50 sec. for them to engage. After a while you could get a "feel" for the behavior/response and compensate as long as the time delay values remained fairly constant. But if the time delay elements change the chances of keeping the system stable(staying on the road) becomes very difficult indeed. I am not saying the FED hasn't made mistakes -- but we shouldn't blame them entirely for the present state of affairs. I think investor greed in pumping up the bubble can be figured in there somewhere. GWB crying recession and media hype may have had something to do with changing the psychology out there which affect the nature of the feedback elements in the economic system. These actions can be self fulfilling prophecies. But as you said "get real people, u and u alone pull the arm on the one armed bandit " As I finish this, it looks like the ZTRIN is moving into rally territory. We shall see. Thanks GH