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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (2369)	3/13/2001 7:34:03 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay.. the seed of an interesting case for a long position I thought was made tonite on public television in the US... notwithstanding the issue of valuation.... growth in efficiency producing products has shifted to internal uses vs. the more visible and now decimated rapid growth vis a vis an internet linked presence.... the reaction to current conditions is compressed...hence... in some cases, devaluation of business models et al, which should, in the case, normally take place in a 9 month or 12 month time period, have already taken place in a much more rapid fashion...i.e. instant adjustment, instant reaction...and of course made possible by effieciency infrastructure already in place during the previous build out... resource use is shifting...where headline stories may show massive disallocation in, say, technology, allocation is now going to heretofore starving sectors that did not enjoy the same attention as those in the spotlight during the dot bomb revolution....and this includes human resources...so that the net current effect is far more stable than headlines might suggest.... caution in regard to consumer spending... is allayed in part not by divestment of equity holdings but through re-financing of home equity..from which the net surplus offsets the need to sell other assets...and also offsets extreme consumer pullbacks in as much as avg wealth in the USA is not in the stock market but is in home equity.... that over all, thus far, income vs. spending has still never been better and is the bottom line for the core confidence of the working country.... much dot com finance came from surplus capital options created, hence a zero sum game...transfer from one account into another in a close system... thus.. the long view... does not yet consider places where there are still over capacities that are not yet reduced to acceptable levels...but certainly can anticipate those places...and does consider where capital will have a sustainable return in places where the above outlined resources have shifted.... and last....taking out all money losing members of the nasdaq (i've seen this in three places besides tonite's program)...nasdaq avg p/e moves from the 120's to 35...not including however the issue of declining earnings against unadjusted current valuations.... so.... does the theory of certain bottoms in sight make sense to you...and in time, to be followed by other sets of lagging bottoms... fundamentals only...and not including emotional and/or other irrational forces beyond this outline.... TIA J