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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (761)	3/13/2001 9:19:16 AM
From: rsie	Respond to of 10065

I too must say.....Bob was wrong....there, I got it off my chest.....Rich

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (761)	3/13/2001 10:59:43 AM
From: Ken Brown	Respond to of 10065

>Hang in there, Ken. This too shall pass. < Thanks, Pete. You're right, of course. I am oddly comforted by the fact that, having gone through the 70s, 60s, and 50s, and now in the 40s, the Qs can't possibly do worse than drop another 3-4 decades. :) That much is guaranteed. Meanwhile, my thoughts have gone from "it would be great to make 20%" to "hmmm, 10-20% looks hard" to "I just want to get even" to the current "ok, 'even' is out of the question, how much loss do I accept?". I do firmly believe the last statement now, unless my time horizon for this trade were to stretch out to 2002 and beyond. Which I cannot afford, as I now desire other allocations for this money than tech. I'm assuming that the best we can hope for is a 50% retracement of the move from the mid 80s, to wherever the final (intermediate-term) bottom ends up (or should I say, down?). And that will likely be a 3-6 month process, and may end up with only about 1/3 retracement instead. Treacherous waters, indeed. Ken

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (761)	3/17/2001 12:10:14 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10065

without sounding like an elitest it's nice finding a thread with a lot of pleasant familiar faces. Hope this remains that way. Like many whiners I must say this CTR has been a disaster for me. Was riding Bob's countertrends and bear perfectly so I assumed the obvious that neither I nor Bob could do any wrong. Came home from a trip in October and found the bulletin and wasn't sure how to play it. I decided playing Bob's calls very aggressively had been the ticket in the past so closed my short hedges, went aggressively long and the rest is history. Too bad what probably was the best call in Bob's career on the bear market has been badly tarnished by the CTR call. More important than any past history is where do we go from here. I think I have to start on the basis of the long term timing model which has been extraordinarily good. Bob said he was looking at a bear that could reach 40-70% in the NASDAQ. He also thought it likely that all the major averages except perhaps the Dow would be in bear territory before its over. We've pretty much reached these areas with over 60% down in the Naz, over 20% in the S&P500 and Wilshire, and the Dow finally breaking down 16% including the recent plunge. He was looking for moabo late 2001 or in 2002 and we know Bob is very impressed with the history of rallies that start in "off presidential" electiion years which means 2002 in this case Some scenarios to throw out: 1)maybe we'll still get a huge CTR to close to 3000 and then enter a final plunge to 1500 or below. Would be ideal if we recognized it, eased out near the top and sat in a bunch of cash for moabo. However the train called ideal left the station a long time ago and I have no idea if that is feasible anymore 2) I thought Art Cashin threw out an interesting idea tonight that was either said or quoted on CNBC. Maybe after the Fed meets we get an initial positive response. However after a brief rally it gets sold into, heavy selling starts and perhaps desperation and capitulation follows. Such a scenario might cause a bottom that is conceivably moabo but more likely at least a solid bottom from where a huge CTR can start with a final bottom in 2002. 3) We're looking at Japan like losses and I believe without a CTR almost immediately we diverge from the Japan chart to the downside and are almost in bleak horrendous unchartered territory. I don't know about you guys but after the tremendous beating I've been through I can't fathom selling at any level here. Just time to sit on the sidelines and watch my assets dwindle further and hope the biotech I have a big position in softens and doesn't exacerbate the blow. The other big issue in my mind is with these huge losses, and at least the short term indicators proving a flop, will Bob's model still recognize moabo? At the moment we have unwittingly been turned into buy and hold investors in a bear market. Worse, the hold part of that is in the weakest part of the market. I have no great answers but a huge CTR still appearing will soften the blow. I realize that some of you for various reasons decided to stay away from a possible CTR and are sitting pretty to which I say congratulations. Marc