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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (772)	3/17/2001 7:23:25 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

marc ultra - great analysis ! Having followed the same strategy as you (Short fund down from summer peaks closed out to get into CTR2 QQQ trade), I vote for Option 1. BTW: It's great to read your thoughtful posts again. You may be interested in commenting on the below linked post and responses about my recent thoughts on a possible flaw Bob's strategy. I think you and I may have unwittingly had it right for a few months in that ULTRA Short Fund bought last summer. Message 15509237 Also, I'm starting to hear people saying we are starting to experiencing "capitulation", yet advisor sentiment continues to remain just above 60% bullish. This makes me think MOABO will be later rather than sooner. Given the damage so far, the disappointing magnitude of the few bounces we have had, and today's announced 7% cutback in OPEC crude production; I'm starting to think MOABO could be at an even lower area than NAZ 1400-1500 - If so, any ideas on what that level could be ? Looking at a chart of the DOW the other day, I'm thinking at MOABO we could be looking at DOW 8000. Any thoughts on these issues ? P

To: marc ultra who wrote (772)	3/17/2001 10:04:02 AM
From: Investor2	Respond to of 10065

Welcome home, marc! And I must say, you returned with an excellent post. Re: "Too bad what probably was the best call in Bob's career on the bear market has been badly tarnished by the CTR call." I couldn't agree more. As Kirk says, it appears Bob snagged defeat from the jaws of victory. While playing playing Bob's recommendations conservatively in the past has reduced my return, my conservative stance on the QQQ trade has benefited me. Still, the dollars invested in QQQ is money that will not be available for MOABO, which is a shame. RE: "1)maybe we'll still get a huge CTR to close to 3000 and then enter a final plunge to 1500 or below. Would be ideal if we recognized it, eased out near the top and sat in a bunch of cash for moabo. However the train called ideal left the station a long time ago and I have no idea if that is feasible anymore." I don't know about the numbers, but I do believe that we will have a CTR sometime between now and the final bottom. But I'm not sure enough about that belief to make large changes in my equity allocations in an attempt to profit from the CTR. Isn't your paragraph #2 the same as paragraph #1? RE: "We're ... almost in bleak horrendous unchartered territory. I don't know about you guys but after the tremendous beating I've been through I can't fathom selling at any level here." I'm planning on seeing the bleak horrendous uncharted territory that you reference. But the NASDAQ levels are closer to the bottom than they are to the top, which means the worst is over, in terms of market cap loss. Like you, I'm not going to sell too much at these low levels. FWIW, a number of the stocks I follow are at valuations which have historically proven to be good buy points. RE: "The other big issue in my mind is with these huge losses, and at least the short term indicators proving a flop, will Bob's model still recognize moabo?" My guess it "yes." However, it may be wise to dollar-cost-average into the market rather than hoping for the perfect entry point. Best wishes, I2

To: marc ultra who wrote (772)	3/17/2001 10:16:34 AM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Marc You raise a great many issues: I think I have to start on the basis of the long term timing model which has been extraordinarily good. Bob said he was looking at a bear that could reach 40-70% in the NASDAQ. My take on the long-term model is more moderated. He went to 60% cash in January. Therefore, I will say at that time he was 60% correct and 40% incorrect based upon what has transpired. Increasing his exposure with CTR2 worsens this ratio. The Nasdaq. Bob early in the winter / spring period said his model did not forecast the Nasdaq and that Nasdaq was a sector not a market with little trading history behind it. According to DavidK the first mention of a worsening Nasdaq was only after the fact in July 2000. I give Bob no credit for foreseeing the Nasdaq decline until after it was well under way although he did question PE ratios consistently throughout 2000 but no Nasdaq specific calls were made. maybe we'll still get a huge CTR to close to 3000 and then enter a final plunge to 1500 or below. Would be ideal if we recognized it, eased out near the top and sat in a bunch of cash for moabo Maybe. I believe this is still Bob's most probable scenario. Taken in light of the rather mediocre calls Bob has made this year specifically, CTR1, Utek, and CTR2 why should I believe this scenario is likely to play out? Comments? The other big issue in my mind is with these huge losses, and at least the short term indicators proving a flop, will Bob's model still recognize moabo? Excellent question. No answers here. At the moment we have unwittingly been turned into buy and hold investors in a bear market. The market makes higher highs over time. A buy and hold investor makes out extremely well over time. Time heals all wounds. I firmly believe that, as I have posted previously, these Federal Reserve rate cuts coming at a fast and furious pace plus two trillion dollars on the sidelines will fuel a market explosion going forward. These rate cuts will be the catalyst of a strong equity market going forward as unlikely as it may seem as you read this. The economy seems fundamentally strong. I think all systems are go and this is the main reason why I believe we will miss a third and final leg of a bear market after a CTR. Just my thoughts...

To: marc ultra who wrote (772)	3/17/2001 3:30:07 PM
From: Gary D	Respond to of 10065

Welcome back. I can chime in that this debacle has been magnified for me by the fact that I closed out my short positions at the time of the Oct CTR call, and then followed the CTR recommendation. Oh well, at least we made a few bucks on the shorts. Comments on your scenarios: The "huge CTR" versus the "brief rally that gets sold into": I hope we get huge CTR, but I think investor emotions are different down here with QQQ in the low 40's versus if we were in the 60's. Paper losses are so great, that a lot of investors have shifted to 'fear-prone' from 'greed-prone'. For this reason a CTR could come up against tremendous resistance with just a 15-20% gain. I know the thought of getting out will cross my mind when QQQ hits 50, and I know I'm not alone. <g> After reading the Barron's article about tech stocks today, many could get a sense there are valid arguments to justify further big drops in some big-cap techs. With this in mind, getting out at levels 20% higher than today could seem quite attractive. Among the strategies to consider would be to attempt to short near the CTR peak. (And with a mental stop loss). Exit strategy could be to get out at a certain percentage of gain, or, if one has confidence in Bob's ability to identify MOABO, just hold until the MOABO call, regardless of the ups and downs (assuming the stop loss is not triggered). That being said, I suspect that some will be emotionally driven to take excessive risk to make up for their huge losses, and in so doing they will lose even more. I will give Bob's sell signal a lot of weight if I've not already sold at that time. Right now my thinking is not to sell more than half my 'CTR holdings' prior to Bob's exit, whenever it comes. But I have to admit that Bob's sell-signal advice for the CTR is not going to be as useful as it would be if he gave the criteria to be met for a signal to be issued. Is there a minimum level that must be achieved before he gives the signal? I hope not: We should be thankful to get out at QQQ=50, if there is then a fall to the low 30's. Gary