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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1521)	3/13/2001 5:32:35 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

JimL, >AMAT at $25 sometime in 2001 seems more and more likely.< I'd like to see that [even though I own a token position], but what would be the catalyst? Decreasing orders for a few more months is a given and everyone knows it. Fitzgerald of BofA thinks the bottom has been seen in Dec 2000 and I agree [$35]. He counsels accumulation over the next few months. Investors this time seem to be looking farther across the valley than in prior cycles. Gottfried

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1521)	3/13/2001 8:27:28 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Respond to of 23153

JimL RE: <<Look at PHTN 5 year chart>> Jim, I agree with most of your post but watch out for phtn as a short. It's a niche player in a very hot subsector. It does testers and other equipment for the flat panel industry and has the lions share of the business. It has held up well until now and will shoot up when that industry takes off, and it will. I think kodiak, you and others are right in looking for a bounce and then a significant drop. If the amat's of the world rise proportionately to other good stocks in that bounce, I am seriously considering shorting them but very cautiously. I agree that the basis for shorting them is not that they are bad stocks but rather that they are relatively overvalued compared to some other tech stocks. I recently shorted lrcx for a one day short and made a little but dropped off because I was afraid of the bounce. Take a look at nvls also. Of course when we get back to a growth mode, I will join with Gottfried and put a large chunk of money, assuming I have it, in those stocks. By the way, in the osx stocks I stopped being a short term trader and have become an intermediate term investor. Whether they move up and down or not, I think that absent a big meltdown in everything, stocks like rdc, keg and others will make me proud over the next 1 year plus. Since they move so unpredictably from week to week, I don't want to get left behind when we get to the euphoric stage in their evaluation. Gottfried, sorry about the slip up. You are right, of course. California is a very bad place. There are liberals everywhere and this causes earthquakes, droughts, bad politics, gas shortages, low incomes and ungodly behavior. Disneyland smells and the kids there in the little kid section are known for their vicious attacks on out-of-staters, especially those cute little pre-school girls. If I weren't ravaged with disease from the environmental hazards here I would try to leave. Don't let that stop you though, like Don of the desert says, come on down for a visit if you've had your shots. (Will that do it?) Ed

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (1521)	3/13/2001 8:27:48 PM
From: Warpfactor	Respond to of 23153

PHTN has probably been my all-time favorite trader. Unfortunately, I'm holding 300 shares of it, so I will get whacked again tomorrow. I don't think you can really compare PHTN of today with the $2 per share company that it was yesterday. The company has essentially invented automatic yield management/inspection equipment for flat panel displays, where none had existed before. In the past two years as these products came on line, PHTN established its customer base, largely among the Asian FPD manufacturers. If there is one certain trend in tech over the next 5 years, it will be that FPD's will continue to replace Cathode ray tubes - crisper picture, less energy usage, no radiation, smaller footprint and less weight. PHTN is likely to be on the leading edge of that trend (assuming they don't get bought). It will be high on my shopping list during the MOABO. Warp