Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Trade What You See, Not What You Think -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Threei who wrote (448)	3/14/2001 1:11:38 AM
From: Moving Sphere	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 867

Vadym, >>"Ways of our ego are amazing. It really finds every possible crack to sneak in."<< You can say that again. Keeping our ego in check (at least during trading hours) is a full-time job. The line between our regular ego and disciplined ego is so fine that the moment you let up, the regular ego is in. >>"Here is today's discovery: In the morning I am watching BEAS for entry on pullback. Pullback is great but I am missing long entry under 31. Not chasing, stock is topping out at 33 5/16, after some congestion it's losing 32 3/4 where I short it. Up to this moment everything looks fine: reversal at the bottom is missed, top is marked and proved so short is justified."<< Sound like a good plan to me. >>"But starting from this moment and till the day end I was not looking at BEAS as long anymore, in spite absolutely clear uptrend. Trading skills were good enough to not short it anymore but still, refrained from long entries, both on pullbacks and breakouts. Looking at its chart, can't see any other explanation than ego that blocked one side completely."<< Aha! The way I see this, you've fallen into the hindsight trap. From my perspective, there were nothing wrong with your strategy. The market had a horrible dump yesterday. There were no telling if we were dealing with a headfake rally first half of the day and a continuation of a sell-off during the second half. So, intuitively, you knew better than to take unnecessary risk taking a late breakout to the upside. Your disciplined ego made a decision not to go long but instead watched for sign for failure of the breakout. Alas, you were wrong. Time to move on. Unfortunately, in the back of your mind, your regular ego had been pestering you for being cautious. And when hindsight finally revealed the result, your regular ego took no prisoner in belittling your disciplined ego in being wrong. The problem is that our regular ego think it has the power of clairvoyance; that it can see the future; despite contrary evidence that it couldn't. So, that's why, IMHO, we must let the trade (or decision) go afterward and NEVER look back. >>"And I was so sure any stock movement was just numbers blinking for me... :)"<< Numbers were blinking alright; but along with our sense of caution that will keep us survived for a long time to come. Thanks again for sharing! Cheers! MS