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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (10702)	3/13/2001 11:01:46 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12823

Warning...this is a long post with frequent references to Qualcomm. However, I thought their was enough about the 3G buildout to warrant a post instead of PM. is this commitment binding? Could some other technology come along that would not require a GSM operator to be forced to do a forklift upgrade to rollout W-CDMA? I think it would be extremely unlikely for another techonology to supplant W-CDMA for GSM operators. The only current contenders would be EDGE and CDMA2000. The chances for EDGE seem severely diminished since most of the TDMA operators have also switched to W-CDMA. As for other technologies....the wireless industry moves too slowly (standards setting in particular) for there to be a legitimate threat to the GSM operators moving to something other than a form of CDMA. The contracts have already been awarded in at least two dozen cases. I thought the patents only covered chipsets. I recall the current CDMA chipsets put in licensed phones to be around $6 per phone. What expertise did Qualcomm license for manufacturing a 3G phone beyond a chipset? I dont think I am equipped to give you a technical answer. However, Qualcomm has been collecting 5% on the wholesale price of IS-95 (2G CDMA) handsets for 5 years. They also get royalties on chipsets and infrastructure (though I dont know the percentages or how they are calculated) They have already signed W-CDMA agreements with almost every major wireless handset/equipment manufacturer....the exceptions are Nokia, Siemens and Alcatel. The current price of a CDMA chipset is probably around $25. The ASP on CDMA handsets is around $200....I see this increasing over the next couple of years. I thought chipsets was 100% of the equation. Anyhow, why will it fall with the introduction of W-CDMA? I'm not following even though it may be obvious. W-CDMA was a standard created by companies who were looking to avoid the type of lock that Qualcomm enjoys in 2G CDMA (or MSFT/INTC in computers). Nokia, Ericsson and Sony have all signed with TI for W-CDMA chipsets...and many of the Japanese manufacturers are trying to do the chipsets in-house (NEC, Toshiba). Qualcomm will need to stay a generation ahead of the competition to force companies to work with them. Or does the CDMA network have to undergo significant upgrading to achieve 2G? If so, is this 2G network fully compatible with a 3G or will an operator have to tear up a 2G network to deploy 3G? Operators that have deployed 2G CDMA (IS-95A) are going to have a significant cost advantage vs. TDMA based operators when it comes to deploying 3G (either CDMA2000 or W-CDMA). The current CDMA carriers basically need to change a channel card and upgrade some software. The GSM/TDMA operators will have to completely change out their air interface when moving to W-CDMA. An example is Sprint PCS is which is planning on deploying 1xrtt (a form of CDMA2000) over the next 18 months. They are comitting around $800m to this effort....dramatically less than GSM/TDMA operators. IMHO, it's just not going to happen. 2006 is a more likely timeframe. Mobile wireless users will have plenty enough bandwidth in the 2G technologies. So what will drive a push to 3G (customers willing to pay) just won't be there until 2006. But it's just my opinion only. Well...this is the $100 Billion dollar question (literally <g>). I think the question of the consumers response to wireless data has been well covered. However, lately I have begun to think that the spectrum that was auctioned for 3G will be needed for voice as well as for data. I have begun reading reports of operators beginning to run out of spectrum in Europe. If true, it would only hasten the move to W-CDMA....it will provide at least 3x-4x the amount of voice capacity as GSM. The one question that I cant answer is the schedule for W-CDMA. There is a significant risk that it will be delayed due to technological problems. The entire wireless world will be closely watching the May W-CDMA rollout by NTT Docomo... Slacker

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (10702)	3/13/2001 11:21:36 PM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Hi, Mike - "IMHO, it's just not going to happen. 2006 is a more likely timeframe. Mobile wireless users will have plenty enough bandwidth in the 2G technologies. So what will drive a push to 3G (customers willing to pay) just won't be there until 2006. But it's just my opinion only." And mine. This whole question is at the center of the way wireless will evolve. I am puzzled at the way almost everyone on this thread is transfixed by the xG issues, when so many important questions remain unanswered. This is not a question of whether slacker is right, or Maurice is right, or about how xG will one day evolve. Evolve it will. But all the questions about revenue models, debt, killer apps, infrastructure buildout costs, handset costs, wireless data market differentiation, and more, remain unanswered. Everybody just seems to blindly assume that 3G will be here soon, and it will be a blazing success, despite these many unanswered questions. Pardon me? I have yet to see anybody make that case. Regards, Jim