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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (1572)	3/14/2001 9:54:50 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Micheal - global slowdown comments Hell, I can make any statement I want. I may not be right. Imo, most of the techs have talked about there being no visibility in the US markets. When the talking heads on CNBC are pressed to say whether or not this will spill over into the world economy I have yet to more than a handfull even acknowledge this possibility. Further very few CEO's have said they are warning due to a world slowdown. We've had a few companies say they see potential signs of the beginning of one, but not necessarily that it's happening yet. Maybe it's already priced in, but I've made the case that the semi's are not cheap. Got ahead and buy tech if you want and hold it, but I think there could be quite a bit more downside left. I think short term we are oversold and we could have a tradeable rally, but that's not that same thing as saying that techs have priced in all potential bad news. Looks like the techs don't care. Hell maybe I'm wrong in the short term, but I think I'll be proven right eventually.

To: The Ox who wrote (1572)	3/14/2001 6:17:13 PM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Respond to of 23153

Michale, I'm way behind on posts - 70 to go, so I apologize if this is a cold topic. You wrote: <<<"Techs are still very much in a denial of a global slowdown." How can you make such a statement? Almost every 'tech' company that I follow has stated that they have little to zero visibility going forward. They are seeing business get pushed out or disappear rapidly. The NASDAQ market is down over 60% and still heading south. Look at many leading companies who's stocks have been pummeled and continue to get trashed.>>> I believe the first statement is 100% right. All I've seen to date in the way of public statements is that "profits will be down", or "...growth will decline", etc. etc. Tech companies aren't admitting yet that they have little to no chance of making a profit in the next two to three quarters - and a big chance of suffering significant losses. When the big guys come out forecasting large losses, and the little guys are slowly marched off to bankruptcy court - then the truth will be out and denial will be moot. Sharp