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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Second_Titan who wrote (1641)	3/14/2001 5:12:06 PM
From: excardog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

I think we've got a bear market on the oil and gas side right now futures wise. No sense trying to front run it. We could run out of natural gas and the market would head lower right now.IMO From Bridge: NYMEX Oil Review: Plunges to 11-week Low as Demand Worry Grows Mar. 14-MAR-- By Peter Rosenthal New York, March 14 (BridgeNews) - Crude oil futures plunged more than $1.00, to their lowest level this year, on concerns that OPEC would be unable to cut output enough to offset slowing energy consumption. Apr ended down $1.14 at $26.45 a barrel, with losses extended after Saudi Arabia oil minister Ali Naimi indicated OPEC is worried about the economies of its top markets. * * * Data showing U.S. oil inventories rose last week and plunging equity markets--the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 400 points--added to the weakness. The decline comes two days before OPEC is expected to decide to cut production for the second time this year. Expectations are the oil producers cartel will trim supplies by 500,000 to 1.0 million barrels per day, although the latest indications are leaning toward a smaller cut, brokers said. "This is a very serious matter, we are going to do our best to arrest the decline, but we have to take the whole economic situation into consideration," Naimi told reporters in Vienna on Wednesday. Algerian oil minister and OPEC President Chekib Khelil said earlier the maximum cut would be 1.5 million bpd, while Venezuela's representative, Oil Minister Alvaro Silva, said the cut would be at least 500,000 bpd and may be more than 1.0 million bpd. (See story .208) "They're throwing around the half a million number, and now they're concerned about the economic impact on the demand side," said a broker. "If they cut big, they think demand is going to be soft, which is a self-fulfilling prophecy." The International Energy Agency on Wednesday lowered its forecast for oil demand in 2001 by 200,000 bpd to 76.8 million bpd, though consumption is still expected to rise 1.41 million bpd from the previous year. The IEA, which monitors energy markets for the West, also underlined that inventories remain exceptionally low. Much of the selling earlier was said to be in the gasoline cracks--the implied profit for refiners based on the differential between gasoline and crude oil--which have reached above $10 a barrel on the April contracts. Refiners were also trying to lock-in gasoline margins at their unusually high levels, a broker said. Domestic plants are operating below 90% of capacity as they undergo a large slate of maintenance to prepare for the summer driving season. But concern persists about whether the work will end soon enough to allow refiners to build stocks of clean burning gasoline before summer. "I think it's going to be the same as last year," with summer reformulated gasoline, the fuel blend required under NYMEX futures contracts after April 15. "Certain areas, like the Metropolitan area and the Midwest, it's going to be a question of distribution, at the end, the result's the same." Brokers said commodity investment funds then began selling May crude contracts, which become the front month after Friday. May ended down $1.23 a barrel at $26.60, maintaining a modest premium to the front month. More The bridge.com ID for this story is BQCQFMG

To: Second_Titan who wrote (1641)	3/14/2001 8:40:51 PM
From: Evolution	Respond to of 23153

"Last weeks temperatures were below normal..." Today's reported NG draw wasn't impressive. Does that figure correspond to last week's consumption, or is there a lag in those figures for some reasons? Anyway, with 707 BCF left in storage, it looks like we will be at 600 BCF, give or take a few molecules in 2 weeks before picking up again. A surprise extended cold wave may get us closer to 550 BCF in 3 weeks... I have lightened up a bit in XTO ( a triggered stop-order for my LT shares), but intends to ride the rest of my NG E&P’s through. I could do better trading in theory, but that’s only theory in my case. I just hope not to see a large drop that will scare me out at lower prices…. Gotta to keep the faith for next winter! e.